Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This Polymarket event asks which player will win the 2026 Associated Press NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 season [1]. Each market in the saved event is a separate Yes/No contract on one named player. The market resolves to the player who wins the award, using official NFL information, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. If the season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared in that timeframe, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A tie follows official NFL rules, and if multiple winners are announced, the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically is used [1].

The listed end dates differ. Some markets list 2027-02-11T23:59:00.000Z and others list 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z, and the event's listed end time is 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are listed close times, not announcement dates. The evidence does not say when the NFL will name a winner.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:08:14.736Z [1]. They describe that moment and should not be read as current quotes. The prices are not executable and are not verified probabilities.

The saved Yes prices were: David Bailey 0.335, Arvell Reese 0.221, Sonny Styles 0.095, Mansoor Delane 0.0755, Caleb Downs 0.0325, Malachi Lawrence 0.028, Akheem Mesidor 0.0175, and Rueben Bain Jr. 0.0165 [1]. Each is a separate contract price. They should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate. The sample is ordered by Yes price, which describes how the record was assembled, not how well any forecast has performed.

What remains uncertain

For this saved event, all eight markets were included and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The provider also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The "Other" outcome named in the rules does not appear among the saved Yes markets, so this snapshot contains no price for it. Its price should not be inferred from the listed contracts.

The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not report trader counts, volume, or recent news about the candidates or the season. Contracts with different wording or close times should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity because their prices differ.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: 2026-27 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.