Name: Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

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Parties advancing from the California Governor primary? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Poly	68%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?	Poly	26%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?	Poly	7%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (138 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $29.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $560
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

137d 13h remaining

Jun 02, 2026 12:00 AM

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33¢

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Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

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Events (1)

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Markets (3)

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?

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Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

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Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?

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