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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

Name: Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
End: 2025-11-23T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$137.74K

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Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

Vol

$137.74K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $137.74K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $137.74K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	26%
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	22%
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	20%
Will MUNDO-GB  win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	10%
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	7%
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$137.74K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 23, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Biss"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $137.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $23.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $19.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will MUNDO-GB  win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $21.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 23, 2025): Vol $38.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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