$30.15K
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5
$30.15K
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5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the number that the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by in January 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for January 2026 (https://w
Prediction markets are currently assigning a low probability to the prospect of monthly U.S. inflation reaching 0.2% in January 2026. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January?", is trading at approximately 35%. This price indicates the market sees a roughly one-in-three chance of this outcome, suggesting it is viewed as possible but not the most likely scenario. With only $25,000 in total volume spread across related markets, liquidity is thin, which can lead to more volatile price swings as new information emerges.
The primary factor suppressing the odds for a 0.2% monthly increase is the Federal Reserve's sustained focus on price stability. With core inflation trends having moderated from their peaks, the market anticipates that policy will remain sufficiently restrictive to prevent a reacceleration in month-over-month price gains. Secondly, historical seasonal adjustments for January CPI data often show subdued movement following holiday-period volatility, making a print at or below 0.2% more common. Finally, current consensus among economic forecasters, which heavily influences these markets, likely points to a continuation of the recent disinflationary trend into early 2026, anchoring expectations for a moderate monthly print.
The key near-term catalyst will be the release of preceding economic data, particularly the December 2025 CPI report and labor market figures. A hotter-than-expected print in December would immediately shift odds higher for January, as it would signal persistent inflationary pressures. Conversely, a notably soft December report could push the probability for a 0.2% January increase even lower. Market odds will also be highly sensitive to Federal Reserve communications and any shifts in implied policy trajectory. A decisive move in energy or commodity prices in the weeks leading to the January report would serve as a direct risk to the current consensus, potentially driving the 0.2% probability upward.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The January 2026 US monthly inflation rate, specifically the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), is a critical economic indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This figure measures the rate of price increases for a basket of goods and services purchased by urban households over a single month, providing a snapshot of inflationary pressures at the start of the year. The CPI-U is the most widely cited measure of inflation in the United States, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions, financial market expectations, and business planning. The January report is particularly scrutinized as it sets the initial tone for annual inflation trends and follows the holiday spending season, which can introduce seasonal volatility in certain categories like travel and apparel. The data is derived from surveys of thousands of retail and service establishments, as well as rental data from tens of thousands of housing units, making it a comprehensive assessment of consumer price changes. Market participants, including traders, economists, and policymakers, closely monitor this release to gauge whether inflationary trends are accelerating, decelerating, or remaining stable, which has direct implications for interest rates, wage negotiations, and investment strategies. The specific resolution for this prediction market will be the exact percentage increase reported in the BLS's monthly CPI news release scheduled for publication in February 2026, which covers price movements from December 2025 to January 2026. Interest in this precise metric stems from its immediate impact on monetary policy expectations and its role as a key input for inflation-adjusted calculations across the economy.
The modern CPI was developed during World War I to adjust shipbuilders' wages and was formally adopted for widespread use in the 1940s. Its calculation has evolved significantly, notably with the introduction of the CPI-U for all urban consumers in 1978 and the adoption of geometric mean formulas in 1999 to better account for consumer substitution. Historically, the January report has occasionally shown anomalous movements due to annual price resets in areas like healthcare services and telecommunications, which the BLS's seasonal adjustment process aims to smooth out. The period from 2021 to 2023 saw inflation surge to 40-year highs, with monthly CPI prints frequently exceeding 0.5 percent, peaking at a 1.3 percent monthly increase in June 2022. This prompted the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. By 2024 and 2025, inflation had moderated considerably, but the path back to the Fed's 2 percent annual target proved uneven, keeping monthly releases like the January report under intense scrutiny. The historical volatility of early-year data means analysts will carefully compare the January 2026 figure to both the prior month's reading and the January readings from previous years to distinguish signal from seasonal noise.
The January 2026 CPI report matters profoundly because it directly influences the cost of borrowing for millions of Americans and businesses. A higher-than-expected reading could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest rates, increasing mortgage rates, auto loan costs, and credit card APRs. Conversely, a lower reading could pave the way for rate cuts, providing relief to debtors and stimulating economic activity. This single data point also affects real wages. If nominal wage growth does not outpace inflation, workers' purchasing power declines, impacting living standards and consumer confidence. For financial markets, the report is a major volatility event. Bond yields, particularly for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and equity sector performance, especially for rate-sensitive sectors like technology and utilities, react immediately to surprises in the data. Beyond economics, the figure carries political weight, as perceptions of inflation management significantly influence public opinion and electoral outcomes, making it a focal point for the administration and opposition parties alike.
As of late 2025, the inflation landscape is defined by a gradual moderation from the highs of the early 2020s, though services inflation remains somewhat persistent. The Federal Reserve's policy stance is in a data-dependent holding pattern, with officials signaling a reluctance to cut interest rates until they see more consistent evidence that inflation is converging to 2 percent. The final CPI releases of 2025 will set the baseline expectations for the January 2026 report. Market consensus, as reflected in futures and analyst surveys, will crystallize in the weeks leading up to the February 2026 release date. Key areas to watch include the trajectory of shelter inflation, which has been slowly decelerating, and potential volatility in energy prices during the winter heating season.
The headline CPI includes all items in the market basket, including volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes food and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying, persistent inflation trends. Policymakers often focus on core measures, but the headline figure directly impacts consumers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically releases the monthly CPI report around the 13th of the following month. Therefore, the CPI data for January 2026 is scheduled for publication in mid-February 2026. The exact date will be announced in the BLS's quarterly release calendar.
Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs) are based on the average CPI-W (for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) from the third quarter of one year to the next. While the January CPI does not directly set the COLA, it contributes to the annual trend that determines the adjustment for the following year.
The CPI's measure of shelter, primarily rent and owners' equivalent rent, uses a survey methodology that creates a significant lag, often 6-12 months, behind real-time market rents. It is currently reflecting the period of rapid rent increases that peaked in 2022-2023, even as current market rent growth has slowed.
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process the BLS uses to remove predictable seasonal price movements, such as post-holiday discounts or summer travel peaks. This allows for better month-to-month comparison of underlying inflation by filtering out recurring calendar-related noise from the data.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 3% |
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