This prediction market addresses whether Javier Milei will cease to be President of Argentina before the end of 2026. Javier Milei, a libertarian economist and former television pundit, was elected President of Argentina in November 2023 and took office on December 10, 2023. His presidency represents a radical departure from Argentina's traditional political establishment, marked by his promises of sweeping economic deregulation, dollarization of the economy, and dramatic reductions in government spending and size. The market resolves to 'Yes' if he leaves office for any reason, including resignation, impeachment, death, or incapacity, before December 31, 2026. People are interested in this topic due to Argentina's profound economic crisis, characterized by hyperinflation exceeding 200% annually and a history of political instability where several presidents have failed to complete their terms. Milei's confrontational style, his party's minority status in Congress, and the immense challenge of implementing his 'shock therapy' austerity measures against strong social and political resistance create significant uncertainty about the durability of his government. This market essentially functions as a real-time probability assessment of his administration's survival.

Historical Context

Argentina has a long history of presidential instability, providing crucial context for this prediction. Since the return of democracy in 1983, multiple presidents have failed to complete their elected terms. In December 2001, President Fernando de la Rúa resigned amidst economic collapse and social unrest, leading to a rapid succession of five presidents in two weeks. More recently, President Fernando de la Rúa's resignation was preceded by the 1999-2001 crisis. In the 21st century, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner faced significant social protests and legal challenges, while her successor, Mauricio Macri, grappled with a severe currency crisis in 2018. The most immediate precedent is the presidency of Alberto Fernández (2019-2023), which was marked by constant internal strife with his vice president, economic stagnation, and inflation that accelerated into triple digits. This pattern of economic crisis triggering political upheaval sets the stage for evaluating Milei's prospects. The Argentine constitution allows for impeachment by Congress, and public pressure has repeatedly forced early exits, making the historical precedent for premature departure substantial.

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