$18.38K
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$18.38K
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Group F If X finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market will close and expire after results are declared.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which national football team will win Group F during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific team if that team finishes first in the group stage. In the event of a tie on points, the official FIFA tiebreak criteria will determine the winner. The market closes after official results are declared. Group stage performance is a critical early indicator of a team's potential tournament success, as winning the group typically leads to a more favorable path in the knockout rounds. The composition of Group F will be determined by the official World Cup draw, scheduled for late 2025. Interest in this market stems from its function as an early test of team strength and form, offering insights before the high-stakes knockout phase begins. Bettors and analysts use group stage outcomes to gauge tactical setups, squad depth, and a team's ability to handle tournament pressure.
The FIFA World Cup group stage has been a tournament feature since the inaugural 1930 event, though the format has evolved. The current system of awarding three points for a win was introduced for the 1994 tournament, replacing the previous two-point system, to encourage attacking play. Historically, winning a World Cup group strongly correlates with deeper tournament runs. For example, at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, six of the eight group winners advanced to the quarter-finals. The tiebreak criteria for determining group rankings have also been refined over time. The current hierarchy, used in 2022 and expected for 2026, is: 1) greatest goal difference, 2) greatest number of goals scored, 3) head-to-head points, 4) head-to-head goal difference, 5) head-to-head goals scored, 6) fair play points, and 7) drawing of lots. The 2026 edition will be the first with 48 teams, changing the group stage from eight groups of four to twelve groups of four. The top two teams from each group, plus the eight best third-place finishers, will advance to a new 32-team knockout round.
Finishing first in a World Cup group carries substantial competitive and financial weight. The group winner typically faces a runner-up from another group in the Round of 32, which is theoretically an easier opponent than a group winner. This can dictate a team's entire knockout bracket path, potentially avoiding other top-seeded nations until later stages. For national federations and players, a strong group stage performance builds momentum, national pride, and global visibility. Economically, advancing deep into the tournament triggers larger payouts from FIFA's prize money pool. For the 2022 World Cup, FIFA distributed $440 million in prize money, with payments increasing at each stage. A successful group stage also boosts merchandise sales, sponsorship value for the team and its stars, and can positively impact tourism and national morale in the qualifying countries.
As of late 2024, the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification process is ongoing across FIFA's six continental confederations. The final 48-team field will not be known until at least late 2025. Therefore, the specific teams that will comprise Group F are unknown. The official final draw to assign all qualified teams to groups, including Group F, is scheduled for late 2025, likely in November or December. Until that draw occurs, prediction markets on the Group F winner are necessarily speculative, based on which nations are favored to qualify and their projected strength.
The official draw ceremony to determine all groups, including Group F, is scheduled for late 2025. An exact date will be set by FIFA once qualification is nearer completion.
If teams are tied on points, the winner is determined by: 1) superior goal difference, 2) greater number of goals scored, 3) head-to-head result between tied teams, 4) head-to-head goal difference, 5) head-to-head goals scored, 6) fair play points, and finally 7) a drawing of lots.
For the 2026 tournament, the top two teams from each of the twelve groups will advance automatically to the knockout stage. They will be joined by the eight best third-place finishers across all groups.
The 2026 World Cup will be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Matches will be played across 16 cities in the three nations.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
8 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 55% | 2% |
| 27% | 27% | 0% |
| 5% | 7% | 1% |
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Group F If X finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market will close and expire after results are declared.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sour
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group
If Netherlands finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group
If Japan finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after result
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group
If Tunisia finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after resu
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