GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Name: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
End: 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.86M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Vol

$10.86M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.86M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.86M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	Poly	57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Poly	42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Poly	18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$10.86M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2027 (207 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.29M
* **Total Liquidity:** $328.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.91)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $872.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $182.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2027): Vol $218.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $10.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics