Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Total Volume

$114.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Vol

$114.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $114.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $114.42K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	99%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	79%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	68%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$114.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Dec 2026 If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than X in the twelve months ending December 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the U

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than X in the twelve months ending December 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the U

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $114.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $9.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Volume$114.42K

Markets15

15 of 15

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules

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43¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/CVwI2J" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)"></iframe>

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Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

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Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

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Events (1)

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Markets (15)

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

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Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026?

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