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$222.92
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the
Prediction markets are pricing in an overwhelming Republican victory in the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election. The leading market, "Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?" is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This near-certain price indicates the market views the outcome as almost a foregone conclusion. It is important to note, however, that current trading volume is extremely thin, which can make these initial prices more volatile and less reliable as a consensus signal.
The primary factor is Wyoming's profound and consistent partisan lean. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since Dave Freudenthal left office in 2011, and it is the most Republican-leaning state in the nation in federal elections. The current political environment and the state's demographic profile provide no indication of a shift. Furthermore, the incumbent, Republican Governor Mark Gordon, is term-limited, but the GOP primary winner will inherit this dominant structural advantage. Historical precedent shows that open-seat races in Wyoming do not materially increase Democratic chances, as the state's political machinery and voter base remain firmly Republican.
The 95% probability leaves little room for movement, but a significant odds shift would require an unprecedented political shock. A potential catalyst could be an exceptionally divisive and damaging Republican primary that nominates a candidate viewed as untenable by the general electorate, potentially boosting a unified Democratic challenger. Alternatively, a major scandal involving the eventual GOP nominee closer to the election could temporarily depress odds. However, given the state's fundamentals, any such dip would likely be shallow and brief. The market will gain more meaningful liquidity and signal after the Republican primary in August 2026, which will be the de facto decisive contest.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Wyoming Governor Election Winner prediction market focuses on forecasting the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial election in the state of Wyoming. This market allows participants to trade shares based on their predictions of which candidate will secure the governorship, with the market resolving definitively once election results are certified. The contest is significant as it will determine the political leadership of a state with a unique economic profile centered on energy production, agriculture, and tourism, and one that holds considerable influence in federal land and resource management policies. The election is set against a backdrop of Wyoming's deeply conservative political landscape, where Republican primaries have historically functioned as the de facto general election. Interest in this market stems from several factors, including the potential for an open seat if incumbent Governor Mark Gordon is term-limited, ongoing debates about the state's economic diversification, and the national political attention on energy-producing states. Participants analyze candidate announcements, fundraising reports, primary challenges, and shifting voter demographics to inform their positions.
Wyoming's gubernatorial politics have been dominated by the Republican Party for nearly half a century. The last Democratic governor was Ed Herschler, who served from 1975 to 1987. Since then, Republicans have held the office continuously, often winning by overwhelming margins. The 2018 election saw a relatively competitive Republican primary where investor Foster Friess spent heavily but lost to Mark Gordon, who then easily defeated Democrat Mary Throne in the general election. The 2022 cycle reinforced this dynamic, with Governor Gordon defeating his primary challenger, Rex Rammell, and then winning the general election with about 75% of the vote. Historically, the Republican primary has been the decisive contest, with winners typically aligning with the state's conservative principles on limited government, gun rights, and support for the energy sector. The 2026 election will be the first open-seat gubernatorial contest since 2010, when Matt Mead succeeded the term-limited Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat who was elected during a period of high energy revenues. This historical pattern suggests intense focus will be on the Republican primary, where ideological battles between establishment and populist wings of the party will play out.
The outcome of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election will have profound implications for the state's economic direction and policy priorities for the remainder of the decade. Wyoming faces significant challenges, including a reliance on volatile mineral tax revenues, the need to diversify its economy beyond coal, oil, and gas, and managing its vast federal lands and water resources. The next governor will shape policies on energy development, education funding, healthcare access, and responses to climate change, directly affecting the livelihoods of its approximately 580,000 residents. On a national level, Wyoming's governor plays a key role in interstate compacts, Western state alliances, and legal challenges against federal regulations, particularly those emanating from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Interior. The election also serves as a barometer for the strength of different factions within the Republican Party in a deeply red state, offering insights into the national political trends heading toward the 2028 presidential election.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages with no formal declarations of candidacy. The political landscape is defined by speculation and positioning ahead of the 2025 filing period. Potential Republican candidates, including U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman and Secretary of State Chuck Gray, are widely discussed, while the Democratic field remains undefined. Incumbent Governor Mark Gordon, serving his final term, is beginning to shape his legacy, and his future endorsements will be closely watched. Fundraising networks are being activated, and potential candidates are gauging support through travel and speeches at county-level Republican events across the state.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The Republican and Democratic primary elections are scheduled for August 18, 2026, which will determine each party's nominee for the general election.
No, Governor Mark Gordon is term-limited. The Wyoming Constitution prohibits a governor from serving more than two consecutive elected terms. He was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, making him ineligible to run again in 2026.
Given Wyoming's strong Republican lean, the favorite will be the candidate who wins the Republican primary. Early speculation centers on figures like U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman and Secretary of State Chuck Gray, but the field is not yet set and the primary is expected to be competitive.
No. The last Democratic governor of Wyoming was Ed Herschler, whose final term ended in January 1987. Since then, Republicans have won every gubernatorial election, often by very large margins.
Key issues will include managing the state budget amid fluctuating energy revenues, diversifying the economy, supporting the coal, oil, and natural gas industries, federal land and water rights, education funding, and healthcare access in a rural state.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 95% |
 | Poly | 3% |
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