Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Tirana mayoral election winner?

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Tirana mayoral election winner?

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Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?	Kalshi	55%
Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?	Kalshi	31%
Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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55%

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About This Event

In 2027 If the candidate of the coalition that includes X wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. X coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission, KQZ, for the Tirana mayoral election, or an independent candidate that the listed party in it, the Socialist Party, the Democratic Party or Lëvizja Bashkë, publicly declares as its own candidate before the KQZ candidate-registration deadline. X party running without a coalitio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tirana mayoral election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If the candidate of the coalition that includes X wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. X coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission, KQZ, for the Tirana mayoral election, or an independent candidate that the listed party in it, the Socialist Party, the Democratic Party or Lëvizja Bashkë, publicly declares as its own candidate before the KQZ candidate-registration deadline. X party running without a coalitio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission (KQZ) for the Tirana mayoral election, or an indepen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 9, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 9, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 9, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Tirana mayoral election winner?

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KALSHI

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

If the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission (KQZ) for the Tirana mayoral election, or an indepen

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

If the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission (KQZ) for the Tirana mayoral election, or an indepe

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

If the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A coalition's candidate is the candidate it registers with the Central Election Commission (KQZ) for the Tirana mayoral election, or an independent

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Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

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Events (1)

Tirana mayoral election winner?

Markets (3)

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

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Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tirana mayoral election winner?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election?

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