The 2027 Chicago mayoral election is a municipal election scheduled to take place in Chicago, Illinois, on February 23, 2027. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election between the top two candidates will be held on April 6, 2027. This election will determine the next mayor of Chicago, a position that oversees a city of approximately 2.7 million residents and a municipal budget exceeding $16 billion. The mayor of Chicago is the chief executive of the city government, responsible for public safety, education, transportation, economic development, and a wide range of municipal services. Chicago's mayoral elections are nonpartisan, meaning candidates do not run under party labels on the ballot, though most candidates are affiliated with the Democratic Party. The 2027 election comes after a period of significant political and social change in the city. The current mayor, Brandon Johnson, was elected in 2023, defeating Paul Vallas in a runoff election. Johnson's tenure has been marked by debates over public safety, school funding, and economic development. The 2027 election will be a referendum on his administration and the direction of the city. Interest in the 2027 election is high due to the city's ongoing challenges and the potential for a competitive field. Chicago faces persistent issues with violent crime, a declining public school enrollment, and fiscal pressures from pension obligations and budget deficits. The election will also take place in the context of a national political environment that could influence local dynamics. Potential candidates include incumbent Brandon Johnson, who is expected to seek reelection, as well as other prominent figures from city government, business, and community organizations. Prediction markets for this event allow participants to bet on the outcome, reflecting public perceptions of candidate viability and campaign developments. These markets aggregate information from polls, endorsements, fundraising reports, and media coverage. The market resolves to Yes if a specific candidate wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election. The market will close early if the event occurs, meaning that if a candidate secures enough votes to avoid a runoff, the market will resolve on election night or shortly thereafter.

Historical Context

The 2027 Chicago mayoral election is part of a long history of municipal elections in the city. Chicago has held mayoral elections since its incorporation in 1837. The modern nonpartisan election system was adopted in 1999, replacing a partisan primary system. Under the current rules, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and if no one gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two go to a runoff. This system has produced several competitive elections, including the 2023 race where Brandon Johnson defeated Paul Vallas in a runoff after a crowded first round. Historically, Chicago mayoral elections have been dominated by the Democratic Party, with only a few Republican mayors in the city's history, the last being William Hale Thompson who left office in 1931. The Daley family has been particularly influential, with Richard J. Daley serving from 1955 to 1976 and his son Richard M. Daley serving from 1989 to 2011. The 2019 election saw the election of Lori Lightfoot, the first Black woman and openly gay mayor, following the scandal-plagued tenure of Rahm Emanuel. Lightfoot's single term was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and a rise in violent crime. The 2023 election was one of the most competitive in recent history, with nine candidates on the first-round ballot. Brandon Johnson, a relatively unknown county commissioner, emerged as the progressive alternative, while Paul Vallas ran as a moderate focused on public safety. Johnson's victory signaled a shift to the left for the city, but his approval ratings have been mixed. The 2027 election will test whether voters continue to support progressive policies or seek a change in direction.