GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

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How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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12 markets tracked

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	54%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $62 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $64 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $63 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $56 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $57 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $55 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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54%

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About This Event

In 2026 If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil, as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices, is below X between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil, as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices, is below X between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $56 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $56 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $57 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $62 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $63 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $64 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $55 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $50 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

Volume$0.00

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $65 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $59 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $58 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $61 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $60 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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39¢

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How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

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Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

Markets (12)

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $59 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $58 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $61 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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