This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport on March 28, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the airport weather station, specifically the highest temperature reading in degrees Fahrenheit for that entire calendar day. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where participants attempt to forecast specific meteorological outcomes based on historical patterns, seasonal forecasts, and climate models. Interest in such markets stems from their utility in testing predictive models, their application in industries sensitive to weather, and their role in public engagement with climate science. The specific date of March 28 places the event in late winter or early spring, a transitional period for San Francisco's climate. Participants must consider typical weather patterns for that time of year, including the potential for late-season atmospheric river events, the influence of Pacific Ocean temperatures, and historical variability. The location, San Francisco International Airport (SFO), is the official weather observation site for the city, providing a standardized dataset. Its coastal position means temperatures are heavily moderated by the Pacific Ocean, leading to less daily and seasonal variation compared to inland areas of the Bay Area. The market's resolution to a temperature range, rather than an exact degree, acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in weather prediction several years in advance.

Historical Context

San Francisco's climate is characterized by mild, wet winters and dry summers, with a strong maritime influence. The official climate record for San Francisco is maintained at the airport location, which moved from downtown to the current SFO site in the 1940s. Historical data shows that March temperatures at SFO exhibit moderate variability. The average daily high temperature for March is approximately 63°F (17°C), but records demonstrate a wide range. The all-time highest temperature recorded in San Francisco for any March day is 86°F (30°C), set on March 20, 1939, at the old downtown station. At SFO, March daily record highs typically fall in the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit. For example, on March 28 specifically, the historical record high at SFO is 79°F (26°C). The lowest high temperature recorded for March 28 is 52°F (11°C). This historical range of 27 degrees Fahrenheit for the daily maximum on this date illustrates the significant weather variability possible during the spring transition. Major climate patterns dictate this variability. Strong El Niño events, such as those in 1983 and 1998, have been associated with warmer and wetter winter conditions in California. Conversely, persistent La Niña conditions or specific atmospheric blocking patterns can lead to cooler, drier springs. The historical context is essential for market participants, as it establishes the plausible bounds for the outcome and highlights the influence of large-scale climate oscillations.

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