Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Total Volume

$394.28K

Events

Markets

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Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Vol

$394.28K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $394.28K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $394.28K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	47%
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	41%
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?	Kalshi	32%
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	20%
Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$394.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2029 If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, "OBBB", has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2029

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, "OBBB", has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $394.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 1, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $17.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $368.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Volume$394.28K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.0¢No 59.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If a bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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32¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Cg_O_b" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?"></iframe>

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Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

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Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Markets (5)

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2029?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Sep 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Apr 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") become law before Jan 1, 2027?

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