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$496.37K
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$496.37K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requ
Prediction markets estimate a 100% probability that Donald Trump will say the phrase "sick person" during the week of February 22, 2026. In practical terms, traders are essentially certain this will happen. This level of certainty is unusual in prediction markets, which typically show some degree of doubt. The market has attracted a moderate amount of attention, with about $179,000 wagered across a series of related questions about Trump's potential statements.
The near-certainty stems from Trump's established rhetorical patterns. The phrase "sick person" or "sick people" is a signature insult he has used for years to describe political opponents, critics, and investigators. It fits within a broader category of personal denigration he employs frequently.
This specific prediction is part of a larger bundle of markets tracking whether Trump will say other characteristic phrases like "rigged election," "witch hunt," or "fake news" during the same week. The extreme confidence in the "sick person" market likely comes from it being one of his most common and versatile insults. He has applied it to a wide range of individuals, making its use in any given week statistically very high, especially if he holds a rally or gives an interview.
The resolution period is the week itself, from February 16 to February 22, 2026. Any public appearance, rally, speech, or posted social media statement from Trump during that time will be the source material. The market will close and resolve based on verifiable instances from that seven-day window.
A scheduled campaign rally or a major political development, such as a legal ruling against him, could act as a catalyst for the kind of speech where this phrase is likely to appear. The absence of any public remarks from Trump during the entire week would be the only clear event that could upset the prediction, but that scenario is considered extremely unlikely given his historical activity.
Markets tracking repetitive behavioral patterns, like a politician's habitual vocabulary, can be very reliable. When a public figure has a long, consistent history of using specific phrases, as Trump does with "sick person," markets effectively price in that established behavior. The accuracy here depends less on forecasting a unique event and more on assessing the consistency of a known trait.
The main limitation is the possibility of an anomalous quiet period, though that would contradict years of precedent. For this type of meta-prediction about language use, the market's 100% probability reflects a strong historical baseline more than a speculative gamble.
The Polymarket contract "Will Trump say 'Sick person' this week? (February 22)" is trading at a price of 100 cents, indicating a near-certain 100% probability of resolution to "Yes." This price reflects extreme market confidence that the former president will use the specific phrase publicly before the deadline. With $179,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is sufficient to consider this consensus view strongly held.
The 100% price is almost exclusively driven by a specific, recent news event. On February 20, 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly labeled a political opponent a "sick person" during a campaign rally. Because the market's resolution window runs from February 16 to February 22, this confirmed utterance guarantees a "Yes" outcome. The market is not predicting future behavior, it is pricing in a historical fact that occurred within the defined period. This is a classic example of an "informational event" that moves a prediction market to its terminal value before the official resolution date.
Effectively, nothing can change the odds. The event has already happened. The 100% price indicates the market is in a post-event, pre-resolution state where the outcome is known to traders with certainty. The only remaining variable is the administrative resolution by Polymarket's oracle, which is expected to confirm the publicly verified statement. Any trade at a price below 100 cents would be an irrational bet against established, public fact. The market will resolve automatically after 11:59 PM ET on February 22, solidifying the "Yes" outcome based on the February 20 statement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether former President Donald Trump will mention a specific, undisclosed term during a designated week in February 2026. The market's resolution depends solely on a binary outcome: if Trump publicly uses the term between February 16 and February 22, 2026, the market resolves to 'Yes'. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The rules account for pluralization, possessive forms, and compound words containing the term. This type of market exemplifies a growing trend in political prediction markets, where traders speculate on the likelihood of specific public statements or actions by prominent figures. Interest stems from Trump's continued dominance in Republican politics, his influential media presence, and the volatility his statements often create in political and financial spheres. Analysts and traders monitor his speeches, social media posts, and interviews for signals on policy priorities, campaign themes, or potential controversies. The specific term in question is not publicly disclosed in the market description, a common practice to prevent market manipulation, but it is presumably a politically charged word or phrase relevant to the 2026 political environment. The market's timeframe, a single week, creates a high-resolution, short-term speculative instrument that reflects real-time assessments of Trump's rhetorical focus.
Prediction markets on political statements gained prominence during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. Platforms like PredictIt hosted markets on everything from debate performance to specific policy announcements. Markets on Trump's statements were particularly active due to his prolific and unpredictable communication style. For instance, in 2017, markets speculated on whether Trump would fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. In 2020, markets tracked the likelihood of him conceding the election. The Iowa Electronic Markets, operating since 1988, provided an academic precedent for using market prices to forecast political events, demonstrating that aggregated trader opinions can often outperform polls. The specific mechanism of tracking word usage has parallels in media analysis and 'wordometer' tracking during debates, where news organizations count the frequency of key terms to quantify focus. The legal and regulatory context for these markets has evolved, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granting no-action letters to certain platforms while others operate in a regulatory gray area or offshore.
These micro-prediction markets function as a novel form of political intelligence. The trading price offers a continuous, quantified estimate of the likelihood of a specific future event, providing a data point distinct from traditional polling or punditry. For political operatives, journalists, and analysts, the market sentiment can signal which issues Trump's team is prioritizing or what controversies they are preparing to engage with. A surge in the 'Yes' price might indicate insider information or a sophisticated analysis of his upcoming schedule. For the public and researchers, these markets contribute to the study of collective intelligence and forecasting accuracy in political science. They also raise questions about the potential for manipulation, as large traders could theoretically attempt to influence real-world events to profit from their market positions, though rule-sets and liquidity limits aim to mitigate this risk.
As of the market's creation date, the specific term for the February 2026 week is not publicly disclosed by the market operator to prevent gaming. The market is in its trading phase, with participants assessing the baseline probability based on Trump's current rhetorical patterns, his political standing post-2024 election, and the anticipated news cycle for that future week. The price will fluctuate as new information emerges, such as the announcement of a major speech or the eruption of a relevant news story. Market operators will have designated official sources for verification, likely including major news network transcripts and official campaign communications.
Market operators designate official sources, typically major media transcripts (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Rev.com), official campaign website posts, or verified social media archives. A clear, timestamped record from these sources is required for market resolution.
While possible in theory, most platforms have trading limits per user to mitigate manipulation. Furthermore, manipulating a public figure's speech for market gain is difficult and risky, making large-scale manipulation of these specific markets uncommon.
Market rules typically specify 'public mentions.' A leaked private conversation is usually not considered a valid source for resolution unless the market rules explicitly include leaked audio or video as a qualifying medium.
The legality is complex. Some platforms operate under CFTC no-action letters for certain markets, treating them as research tools. Others, especially those involving real-money trading on political events, may operate in a regulatory gray area or are based offshore to avoid U.S. gambling laws.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Poly | 41% |
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