Brazil Presidential election winner? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	47%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	26%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	11%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	6%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tarcisio de Frietas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Ratinho Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, June 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In The next presidential election

If X has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is announced. This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tarcisio de Frietas has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is announced."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tarcisio de Frietas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Ratinho Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

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Brazil Presidential election winner?

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Markets (8)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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