Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Name: Brazil Presidential election winner?
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$185.66M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Vol

$185.66M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $180.23M

Kalshi

markets · $5.43M

Price Spread

0.7%avg

max 1.4%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $185.66M

97%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	86%	88%	1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	13%	13%	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$185.66M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In The next presidential election In The next presidential election This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In The next presidential election

In The next presidential election This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $47.21M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.33M
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 20.23)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $22.22M
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $2.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $19.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 86.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $2.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Brazil Presidential election winner?

In The next presidential election In The next presidential election This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

Volume$5.43M

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely

Volume$180.23M

Markets2

2 of 2

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POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average86.8%

Polymarket

86.1%

Kalshi+1.4%

87.5%

Difference:1.4%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 86.1¢No 13.9¢

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average12.5%

Polymarket

12.5%

Kalshi

12.5%

Difference:0.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is announced.

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Next Market Closes

Calculating time remaining…

Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

49¢

Polymarket

50¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/CoEWQg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Brazil Presidential election winner?"></iframe>

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Brazil Presidential election winner?