GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

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Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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4 markets tracked

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)	Kalshi	62%
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)	Kalshi	27%
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)	Kalshi	15%
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

62%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mike Rogers wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Volume$0.00

Markets4

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KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligi

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

If Mike Rogers wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligible

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

If Haley Stevens wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eligib

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

If Mallory McMorrow wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The listed candidate must win the election as the nominee of the listed party. If the candidate fails to secure the nomination, this market resolves to No immediately. This market is eli

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26¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/CptGba" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Michigan Senate winner? (Person)"></iframe>

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Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

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Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Markets (4)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Abdul El-Sayed)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mike Rogers)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Haley Stevens)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? (Mallory McMorrow)

Related News & Context

Discussion

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