Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?

Name: Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

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Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?

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Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?	Poly	82%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

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$0.00

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same. The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective qu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (37 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.

The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective qu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 202"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $912
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Up: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [Down: 18.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

36d 11h remaining

May 05, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

82¢

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Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?

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Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)