Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins young men?

Total Volume

$5.60K

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Midterms: which party wins young men?

Vol

$5.60K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.60K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.60K

100%

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2 markets tracked

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?	Kalshi	85%
Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$5.60K

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If X wins young men, 18-29, in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men, 18-29, if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: which party wins young men?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If X wins young men, 18-29, in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men, 18-29, if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican Party wins young men (18-29) in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men (18-29) if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins young men?

Volume$5.60K

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

If the Democratic Party wins young men (18-29) in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men (18-29) if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll.

KALSHI

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

If the Republican Party wins young men (18-29) in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men (18-29) if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll.

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Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: which party wins young men?

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Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

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Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

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Midterms: which party wins young men?

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?

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