$1.70K
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$1.70K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. T
Prediction markets currently assign a 71% probability that the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on January 17, 2026, will be 35°C or below. This price, trading at 71¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market sees a cooler outcome as the clear consensus, though with moderate confidence given the thin trading volume of approximately $2,000. A 71% chance suggests a nearly three-in-four likelihood, but the low liquidity means this view is not backed by substantial capital and could be more susceptible to sharp moves.
The primary factor is Buenos Aires's historical climate data for mid-January. This period falls within the peak of the Southern Hemisphere summer, where average high temperatures typically range from 29°C to 31°C. The 35°C threshold represents an extreme heat event significantly above the seasonal norm. The market is effectively pricing in a typical summer day rather than a record-breaking heatwave. Furthermore, current long-range meteorological models for the region, while uncertain, do not signal an exceptional heat dome or pattern conducive to such extreme temperatures for this specific date two days out.
The odds are most sensitive to imminent weather forecast updates. Any shift in the projected high temperature for January 17, 2026, in the final 48 hours before resolution will directly move the market. A forecast revision toward 36°C or higher from a major weather service would rapidly depress the "35°C or below" contract price. Conversely, a firm forecast solidifying a high in the low 30s would likely push probabilities above 80%. Given the low liquidity, even a single weather model run suggesting extreme heat could trigger a volatile repricing. The market will resolve based on the actual recorded high at Minister Pistarini International Airport, making the local microclimate and final observational data the ultimate catalyst.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on January 17, 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature reading in degrees Celsius for that specific date, as reported by the weather data service Wunderground for the SAEZ weather station. This type of market falls under the broader category of climate prediction, where participants use meteorological data, seasonal forecasts, and climate models to speculate on future weather outcomes. The interest stems from both the practical implications of extreme heat and the challenge of predicting specific weather variables months in advance. Buenos Aires, as a major South American metropolis, experiences a humid subtropical climate, with January being the peak of its summer season. Accurate temperature predictions are valuable for urban planning, public health preparedness, and agricultural activities in the surrounding Pampas region. Recent years have seen increased attention on temperature extremes in Argentina, linked to broader climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña, making such forecasts a point of scientific and public interest. Participants in this market are essentially betting on their interpretation of long-range climate signals and local meteorological factors that will influence that single day's weather nearly two years from now.
Buenos Aires has a long meteorological record, with official observations dating back to the 19th century. The city's climate is classified as humid subtropical, characterized by hot, humid summers and mild winters. January is historically the warmest month, with average maximum temperatures around 29.9 degrees Celsius. The highest temperature ever recorded in Buenos Aires was 43.3 degrees Celsius on January 29, 1957, at the Villa Ortúzar observatory. For the specific location of Minister Pistarini International Airport, which is in Ezeiza, approximately 22 kilometers southwest of the city center, temperature records can differ slightly due to the urban heat island effect being less pronounced than in the dense capital. The summer of 2023-2024 saw significant heatwaves across Argentina, with January 2024 ranking among the hottest on record nationally, underscoring a trend of increasing temperature extremes. The accuracy of long-range seasonal forecasts has improved with advancements in climate modeling, particularly for phenomena like ENSO, which strongly influences rainfall and temperature patterns in the Rio de la Plata basin. Past El Niño events, such as the strong one in 2015-2016, have been associated with warmer and wetter summers in the region, providing historical analogs for forecasters.
Predicting a specific day's high temperature nearly two years in advance tests the limits of meteorological science and collective forecasting wisdom. Success or failure in such markets provides indirect metrics on the predictability of regional climate under evolving global conditions. Beyond the market itself, the outcome has tangible implications. A very high temperature could signal an intense heatwave, posing public health risks like heatstroke, particularly for vulnerable populations, and straining Buenos Aires's electrical grid due to surging air conditioning demand. For the surrounding agricultural Pampas, extreme heat at the peak of summer can stress crops like soybeans and corn, affecting yield forecasts and commodity markets. Furthermore, recorded temperatures contribute to the long-term climatological dataset used to track climate change impacts in one of South America's largest cities. Anomalously high readings add to the evidence of shifting baselines and increasing extreme weather frequency, informing policy decisions on urban adaptation, green infrastructure, and emissions reduction.
As of late 2024, the long-range forecast for January 2026 remains highly uncertain, operating at the edge of predictive skill. The key determinant will be the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the preceding Southern Hemisphere spring and summer of 2025-2026. Current ENSO forecasts for 2024 suggest a transition from El Niño to neutral conditions, but projections for 2025 are less clear. Climate models run by agencies like NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will begin to offer more confident seasonal outlooks for South America in mid-to-late 2025. The Minister Pistarini Airport station continues its routine operations, contributing data to the global network. Market participants are currently analyzing decadal trends, which show a warming baseline, and historical analogs from past years with similar ENSO precursors to inform their positions.
The highest temperature ever officially recorded in Buenos Aires is 43.3 degrees Celsius, which occurred on January 29, 1957, at the Villa Ortúzar observatory. Records for the specific Minister Pistarini Airport location may vary slightly.
Forecast skill decreases rapidly beyond 10 days. Predicting the exact high temperature for a specific day two years in advance is not possible with deterministic weather models. Instead, forecasts rely on probabilistic seasonal climate outlooks that predict temperature anomalies (above or below average) for a month or season.
The urban heat island effect occurs when city infrastructure absorbs and re-radiates heat, making urban areas warmer than surrounding rural areas. Minister Pistarini Airport, located in the suburban area of Ezeiza, experiences a less intense heat island effect than downtown Buenos Aires, which can lead to slightly cooler minimum temperatures, though maximum temperatures are more comparable.
During El Niño events, central Argentina, including Buenos Aires, typically experiences warmer and wetter than average summer conditions. This increases the probability of heatwaves and heavy rainfall. The phase of ENSO is the single most important climate driver for seasonal temperature forecasts in the region.
Official historical and real-time data for the Minister Pistarini International Airport station is published by Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). For this specific prediction market, the resolution source is the Weather Underground page for station SAEZ, which aggregates data.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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