$47.82K
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$47.82K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently price Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination. On Polymarket, her contract trades at approximately 93 cents, implying a 93% probability. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades around 87 cents, creating a notable 6.3% spread. A 93% chance indicates the market views her nomination as nearly certain, though the thin liquidity, with only $12,000 in volume across platforms, means this consensus is not backed by heavy capital.
Three concrete factors explain Garrity's dominant market position. First, she is a proven statewide winner, having been elected Treasurer in 2020 and re-elected in 2024, building crucial name recognition and a track record. Second, the Republican field appears to be consolidating behind her early, with significant party establishment support reducing the likelihood of a strong primary challenger. Third, her profile as a veteran and fiscal conservative aligns with the party's base, and she has avoided major intraparty conflicts that could derail a candidacy.
The primary event itself, scheduled for May 19, 2026, is the ultimate catalyst. The odds could shift if a high-profile Republican, such as a former U.S. Representative or a wealthy businessperson, enters the race before the filing deadline, likely in early 2026. A significant misstep or scandal involving Garrity would also dramatically alter the landscape. Furthermore, the thin market liquidity means a relatively small amount of capital betting against the consensus could move prices meaningfully before the field is formally set.
The 6.3% price gap between Polymarket (93%) and Kalshi (87%) is significant and suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity, buying on Kalshi and selling on Polymarket. This spread likely exists due to the markets' different user bases and the overall low liquidity, which can cause prices to diverge more easily. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may be more aggressively pricing in her perceived inevitability, while Kalshi's U.S.-regulated platform might attract traders slightly more cautious about pre-primary political volatility.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the selection of the Republican nominee for Governor of South Dakota in the 2026 election. It specifically focuses on whether a particular candidate, designated as 'X', will secure the Republican Party's nomination to contest the governorship. The market resolves to 'Yes' if X wins the nomination, with an early close condition triggered upon that victory. This topic is significant because South Dakota has been a reliably Republican state for decades, making the GOP primary the de facto contest for the governorship. The current governor, Kristi Noem, is term-limited and cannot run again in 2026, creating an open seat that has sparked considerable early speculation and maneuvering among potential successors. Interest in this market stems from the state's political importance in national conservative politics, the high profile of Governor Noem, and the early jockeying among prominent South Dakota Republicans to position themselves for a potentially competitive primary. The outcome will shape the state's policy direction on issues like agriculture, energy development, and social policy for years to come.
South Dakota's gubernatorial politics have been dominated by the Republican Party since 1979, with only one Democrat, Mike Rounds in 2002, winning the office in over four decades. This longevity has made the Republican primary the decisive contest for the state's top executive position. The 2018 Republican primary was particularly consequential, featuring a crowded field that included then-U.S. Representative Kristi Noem and then-Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem won that primary with approximately 56% of the vote to Jackley's 44%, a margin that reflected both her strong grassroots campaigning and the support of national conservative groups. She went on to win the general election and was re-elected in 2022 with over 62% of the vote. The last open gubernatorial seat without an incumbent running was in 2010, when Democrat Mike Rounds was term-limited. That year, Republican Dennis Daugaard won the primary and then the general election, continuing the party's hold on the office. The 2026 race will mark the first open seat in over a decade, following Noem's two terms, creating a predictable cycle of intra-party competition for succession.
The selection of South Dakota's next governor will have significant implications for state policy on critical issues like agriculture, energy development, education funding, and Medicaid expansion. The governor appoints heads of state agencies, influences the legislative agenda, and controls the state's National Guard. Furthermore, with South Dakota's lack of income tax and corporate tax, the governor plays a pivotal role in maintaining its business-friendly reputation, which has attracted financial and technology companies to the state. The outcome also matters for national Republican politics. South Dakota has become a laboratory for conservative policy ideas, from strict abortion laws to initiatives on critical race theory in education. The next governor will shape whether the state continues on this path or moderates its approach. The race will test the strength of different factions within the state GOP, including the influence of former Governor Noem, the party establishment represented by Senator Thune, and grassroots conservative movements.
As of late 2024, no candidates have formally declared their intention to run for the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination. However, extensive behind-the-scenes maneuvering is underway. Potential candidates are conducting informal polling, building fundraising networks, and seeking commitments from key political operatives and donors. The political landscape is in a holding pattern, with many waiting to see if U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson will enter the race, as his decision would significantly shape the field. Governor Noem has not publicly endorsed any potential successor, and Senator Thune is focused on his 2028 re-election campaign and national leadership role. The state party apparatus has not begun any formal nominating processes, which typically start with candidate filing in early 2026.
The primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This is the date when Republican voters will select their nominee for the general election in November. Candidate filing deadlines typically occur in late March of the election year.
No, Governor Kristi Noem cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits. The South Dakota Constitution prohibits governors from serving more than two consecutive four-year terms. She was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022.
Early speculation centers on U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson and Attorney General Marty Jackley as potential frontrunners, but no clear favorite has emerged. Lieutenant Governor Larry Rhoden is also considered a strong contender given his current position and legislative experience.
South Dakota gubernatorial general elections are rarely competitive due to the state's strong Republican lean. The last Democratic governor left office in 1979. The real contest for the governorship occurs in the Republican primary.
Key issues will likely include state budget management, agriculture policy, education funding, Medicaid expansion, energy development, and social policies. The candidates' positions on these issues will differentiate them in the primary.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Wil Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina? | Kalshi | 50% |
Wil Pamela Evette be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina? | Kalshi | 36% |
Wil Nancy Mace be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina? | Kalshi | 8% |
Wil Ralph Norman be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Josh Kimbrell be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina? | Kalshi | 3% |
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