Texas's 28th congressional district is a competitive U.S. House seat that has been held by Democrat Henry Cuellar since 2005. The district covers a large swath of South Texas, including Laredo and parts of San Antonio's suburbs, stretching from the Rio Grande border with Mexico up to the outskirts of Bexar County. It is one of the most politically split districts in Texas, with a voter base that is heavily Hispanic (over 70%) but leans more conservative than many other majority-Hispanic districts. Cuellar, a moderate Democrat who opposes abortion rights and supports gun rights, has managed to hold the seat through a combination of personal brand politics, incumbency advantages, and occasional Republican overreach. However, the 2026 election is generating unusual interest because Cuellar faces serious legal problems. In May 2024, he was indicted on federal bribery, conspiracy, and money laundering charges, accused of accepting nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijan-linked energy company and a Mexican bank. Cuellar has pleaded not guilty, but the indictment has already reshaped the race. He won the 2024 general election by a narrow margin of about 5 points over Republican Jay Furman, a performance that was weaker than his previous victories. The 2026 contest will occur while his trial is ongoing or possibly after a verdict. The outcome of the Cuellar case is the single biggest variable in the race. If Cuellar is convicted before the election, he would likely be forced to resign or decline to run again, opening the door for a competitive primary. If he is acquitted or if the trial is delayed, he may seek another term. Republicans see an opportunity to flip the seat, which they have not held since 2004. The district has a Republican-leaning partisan index of R+1 according to Cook Political Report, meaning it is almost evenly split. The 2026 race will also be influenced by national political conditions, including the approval rating of the president in office and the broader electoral environment. Primary challenges from either side could further complicate the dynamics. For now, the race is a toss-up, with the legal fate of the incumbent as the central uncertainty.

Historical Context

Texas's 28th congressional district was created after the 2000 census, when Texas gained two new House seats. The district was drawn to be a Democratic-leaning seat that would elect a Hispanic representative. Henry Cuellar won the open seat in 2004, defeating Republican Jim Hopson with 59% of the vote. Since then, the district has become more competitive as the suburbs of San Antonio have grown and shifted rightward. Cuellar's moderate positioning has been key to his survival. He has consistently outperformed the Democratic presidential candidate in the district. For example, in 2020, Joe Biden won the district by only 2 points, while Cuellar won by 6 points. In 2022, after the indictment rumors surfaced, Cuellar still won by 13 points against a weak Republican opponent. But in 2024, after the actual indictment, his margin shrank to about 5 points. The district has a long history of close elections. In 2010, Cuellar won by only 4 points. In 2016, he won by 5 points. The district has never elected a Republican, but it has come close. The last serious Republican challenge before 2024 was in 2020, when Cuellar defeated Sandra Whitten by 8 points. The legal vulnerability of Cuellar is unprecedented for this district. No incumbent has faced federal corruption charges while in office. The closest parallel might be the 2018 race for Texas's 23rd district, where Republican Will Hurd retired and the seat flipped to Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. But that was a retirement, not an indictment. The Cuellar situation is more similar to the 2020 race for New York's 22nd district, where Republican Claudia Tenney defeated Democrat Anthony Brindisi after Brindisi was implicated in a scandal, though not indicted. The outcome of Cuellar's trial will likely determine whether the district remains Democratic or flips Republican in 2026.