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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-04 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate after all 2026 House races are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, during the midterm elections of President Kamala Harris's first term. Missouri's 4th district is a large, predominantly rural district covering central and western Missouri, including cities like Columbia, Jefferson City, and parts of the Kansas City suburbs. The seat is currently held by Republican Mark Alford, who was first elected in 2022. Political observers monitor this district as a barometer for Republican strength in rural America and Democratic efforts to compete in conservative-leaning areas. Interest in this market stems from its potential to indicate national political trends, the impact of redistricting, and the balance of power in the House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority.
Missouri's 4th congressional district has existed since 1933, following the 1930 census. For most of its history, it was a competitive district, electing both Democrats and Republicans. A significant shift occurred in the 1990s with the rise of Republican Ike Skelton, a conservative Democrat who held the seat from 1977 to 2011 by appealing to rural and military voters. Skelton's defeat in the 2010 Republican wave election marked a turning point. Vicky Hartzler, a Republican, won the seat in 2010 and held it for six terms, consistently winning by large margins, often exceeding 30 percentage points. Hartzler retired in 2022 to run for U.S. Senate, creating an open seat. Mark Alford won the 2022 Republican primary with 34.8% of the vote in a crowded field and then defeated Democrat Jack Truman in the general election by a 67.4% to 29.8% margin. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2022 by Missouri's Republican-controlled legislature, solidifying its Republican lean. The Cook Partisan Voting Index currently rates the district as R+17, meaning it performs 17 points more Republican than the national average.
The outcome of the MO-04 race matters for the national balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. In the 118th Congress, Republicans hold a slim majority of just a few seats. Losing a historically safe seat like Missouri's 4th district could jeopardize their control of the chamber and their ability to pass legislation, conduct oversight, and set the legislative agenda. For Missouri, the election determines representation for over 770,000 constituents on issues critical to the region, including agricultural policy, military affairs related to Fort Leonard Wood, and transportation infrastructure. The race also serves as a test of Democratic Party strategy. A significant investment or a closer-than-expected result could signal a shift in the political dynamics of rural America, potentially influencing campaign tactics and resource allocation in future election cycles across similar districts in the Midwest and South.
As of early 2025, Representative Mark Alford is the declared Republican candidate for re-election in 2026. No prominent Democratic challenger has officially entered the race. The political environment is shaped by the upcoming 2026 midterms, which will be the first national referendum on the presidency of Kamala Harris. National party committees are in early stages of assessing the district's competitiveness and allocating resources for the next cycle. Local Democratic organizations are reportedly conducting candidate recruitment efforts, but the district's strong Republican history presents a significant hurdle.
The district includes Columbia, Jefferson City, Lebanon, Sedalia, and parts of the Kansas City metropolitan area such as Raytown and Lee's Summit. It also contains Fort Leonard Wood, a major U.S. Army training installation.
Yes, Democrats have held the seat for significant periods. The most recent Democrat was Ike Skelton, who represented the district from 1977 until his defeat in the 2010 election. No Democrat has won the seat since then.
The official filing deadline for candidates is set by the Missouri Secretary of State and typically falls in late March of the election year. For the 2026 election, the exact date will be announced in 2025.
As of 2024, registered Republicans significantly outnumber Democrats in the district. According to the Missouri Secretary of State, in the core counties, Republican registration often exceeds Democratic registration by a ratio of nearly 2-to-1.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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