GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next UK by-election called by…?

Name: Next UK by-election called by…?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.96K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next UK by-election called by…?

Vol

$14.96K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Poly	99%
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Poly	84%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$14.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next UK by-election called by…?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics