Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

Total Volume

$321.62

Events

Markets

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California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

Vol

$321.62

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $321.62

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $321.62

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?	Kalshi	87%
Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$321.62

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sonja Shaw wins the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $322
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $313
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

Volume$321.62

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

If Richard Barrera wins the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

If Sonja Shaw wins the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/D9g3N9" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?"></iframe>

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California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

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Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

Markets (2)

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

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Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California Superintendent of Public Instruction winner?

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Richard Barrera win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

Will Sonja Shaw win the 2026 California Superintendent of Public Instruction election?

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