GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.88K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo

Vol

$19.88K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	85%
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	15%
Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%
Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$19.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will res

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will res

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $115.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $426
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $426
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $714
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $412
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $418
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $543
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $588
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics