Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Austin on October 13?

Name: Highest temperature in Austin on October 13?
End: 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.17K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Austin on October 13?

Vol

$3.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on October 13?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on October 13?	Poly	49%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on October 13?	Poly	31%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on October 13?	Poly	12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on October 13?	Poly	7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 13?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 13?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on October 13?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on October 13?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 13?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$3.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Austin on October 13?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading u"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $28.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $150
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $350
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $877
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate