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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

Name: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
End: 2026-03-13T19:59:21.840Z

Total Volume

$76.55K

Events

Markets

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $76.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $76.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 13, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. 

This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in dir"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $38.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $76.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

1¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/DJbgsQ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?"></iframe>

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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