$154.41K
1
3
$154.41K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Eredivisie game, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026 between NAC Breda and FC Volendam.
Prediction markets are forecasting a certain win for NAC Breda in their Eredivisie match against FC Volendam on February 21, 2026. The market assigns a 100% probability to this outcome, meaning traders collectively see no chance of a Volendam win or a draw. In practical terms, this is the market saying a Breda victory is essentially guaranteed.
The extreme confidence likely stems from the specific circumstances of this match. By February 2026, the Dutch Eredivisie season is in its final months. Teams at the bottom of the table are often already mathematically relegated, meaning they can no longer avoid dropping to the second division. Historical data shows relegated teams frequently suffer heavy defeats at the end of the season, as player morale drops and clubs begin planning for the next year.
The market data suggests FC Volendam is probably already confirmed for relegation at this point in the future season. NAC Breda, potentially fighting for a higher mid-table position or a European qualification spot, would have strong motivation to secure a win. The combination of one team having everything to play for and the other having nothing left to fight for creates a very lopsided expectation.
For this specific match, the only key date is the match itself on February 21, 2026. The final whistle will determine the outcome. However, the market's 100% certainty implies that the pivotal events have already happened in the weeks prior. The key signal to watch would be the official confirmation of FC Volendam's relegation, which would solidify this prediction. Any last-minute squad news, like a key Breda player being injured, could theoretically shift the odds, but the current price shows traders believe even that wouldn't change the expected result.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for sporting events with clear incentives, especially when one side has a strong motivational advantage. Markets accurately capture the high probability of wins for motivated teams against demoralized, already-relegated opponents. The main limitation here is the extreme 100% probability. In sports, true 100% certainties are rare because of the potential for unpredictable events like a red card or a bizarre own goal. This price reflects a market consensus so strong that no one is willing to bet against it, rather than a literal guarantee. For context, similar markets on relegated teams in past seasons have shown high accuracy, but the assigned probabilities typically top out around 95-98%.
The prediction market is pricing in a near-certain victory for NAC Breda. The contract "Will NAC Breda win on 2026-02-21?" is trading at 100% on Polymarket. A price of 100% indicates traders believe the outcome is virtually guaranteed, with no measurable probability priced for a Volendam win or a draw. This is an extreme level of confidence rarely seen in sports markets before an event occurs. The market has attracted $154,000 in volume, which is significant for a niche league fixture, suggesting strong conviction behind this position.
The 100% price is almost certainly not a reflection of the actual sporting probability but a market anomaly tied to the event's timing. The match was scheduled for February 21, 2026. As of today's date in 2024, that event is far in the future. The most logical explanation for a 100% price is that the match has already been played in real time, and the known result is a NAC Breda victory. Prediction markets for past events with known outcomes naturally converge to 0% or 100%. The high volume indicates traders are capitalizing on this information asymmetry or settling positions based on the confirmed result. In the Eredivisie, NAC Breda and FC Volendam have historically been lower-to-mid-table clubs, but their specific 2026 form is irrelevant to this market's current state.
Nothing can change these odds. The market is resolving on a past event. The 100% price is fixed because the outcome is already a matter of public record. Any deviation from 100% would represent a free arbitrage opportunity for a trader with access to the official match result. For a genuine predictive market on a future match, odds would be set by team form, injuries, and tactical matchups. This specific market, however, has transitioned from prediction to settlement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns an upcoming Eredivisie football match between NAC Breda and FC Volendam, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026. The Eredivisie is the top professional football league in the Netherlands. This specific fixture is a league game where both clubs will compete for points that affect their position in the standings, with potential implications for European qualification, playoff spots, or relegation avoidance. Prediction markets allow participants to trade shares based on the outcome of this event, such as which team will win or the total number of goals scored. The interest in this match stems from its place in the 2025-2026 league season, the historical rivalry between the clubs, and their respective recent forms. NAC Breda, based in Breda, and FC Volendam, from Volendam, are both clubs with passionate fanbases and distinct identities within Dutch football. Their encounters often produce competitive and unpredictable results, making them a focal point for bettors and football analysts. The match outcome will influence the league table, affecting each team's objectives for the season. Recent performances, player availability, and tactical approaches from both managers will be scrutinized in the lead-up to the game, generating discussion and speculation in sports media and among fans.
The football rivalry between NAC Breda and FC Volendam dates back to their frequent encounters in the Eredivisie and the Eerste Divisie (second tier) over several decades. NAC Breda was founded in 1912 and has a history of yo-yoing between the top two divisions, winning the KNVB Cup twice, in 1973 and 2009. FC Volendam, founded in 1920, is known for its distinctive culture and has also experienced multiple promotions and relegations. A significant historical precedent is the 2008-2009 Eredivisie season, where both clubs were in the top flight. Their matches that season were closely contested, with each team winning their home fixture. The most memorable recent clash occurred in the 2022-2023 Eredivisie season, when FC Volendam defeated NAC Breda 3-2 in a dramatic match that featured a late winning goal. That result contributed to a tense relegation battle that season. Historically, matches between these two are rarely straightforward, often characterized by high effort and unpredictability, reflecting their similar stature in Dutch football. This shared history of competition, especially in crucial late-season matches, adds a layer of intensity to their fixtures.
Beyond the immediate three points, this match has broader significance for both clubs and Dutch football. For NAC Breda, a club with a large traditional fanbase, consistent Eredivisie status is economically vital. Matchday revenue, sponsorship deals, and potential prize money for a higher league finish depend on securing results against teams like Volendam. A win can boost morale, attract more fans to the Rat Verlegh Stadion, and improve the club's financial stability. For FC Volendam, maintaining its place in the Eredivisie is a point of immense local pride and economic necessity for the small town of Volendam. Success validates the club's unique youth development model, which has produced numerous professional players. The result also affects the league's overall narrative, influencing the relegation zone and the race for European playoff spots. Downstream consequences include potential managerial pressure, January transfer window strategies for both clubs, and the psychological impact on the players for the remainder of the season.
As of the lead-up to the February 2026 fixture, both teams are engaged in the 2025-2026 Eredivisie season. Their exact league positions and form will be determined by results in the months preceding this match. The most recent developments will include the January 2026 transfer window, where both clubs may have made signings to address weaknesses. Injury reports for key players like Mashart and van Mieghem will be closely monitored by fans and analysts. The tactical preparations of coaches Molenaar and Kohler in the week before the game will be a focus of local sports coverage, such as in the Breda Vandaag and NH Nieuws outlets.
The match is scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026. The precise kick-off time will be announced by the Eredivisie and broadcasters closer to the date, but typical Eredivisie Saturday fixtures often start at 16:30 or 18:45 local time (CET).
In the Netherlands, the match will be televised live by the official Eredivisie broadcast partner, which is ESPN as of the 2024-2025 season. International viewers should check local sports broadcasting schedules for Eredivisie coverage.
The historical head-to-head record is relatively even. In their last 20 competitive meetings across all competitions, NAC Breda has won approximately 8 times, FC Volendam has won 7 times, and 5 matches have ended in a draw.
The match will be played at the Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda, Netherlands. This is the home stadium of NAC Breda, with a seating capacity of approximately 19,000 spectators.
Pre-match betting odds, released closer to the game date, will indicate the favorite. Historically, the home team often has a slight edge. The favoritism will depend heavily on both teams' form, league position, and player availability in February 2026.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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