Market snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. This snapshot is older than six hours. Check the provider for current prices and availability.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

Reported volume

PM $2.7K · K 4.4K contracts

Events

Markets

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Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

Vol

PM $2.7K · K 4.4K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 8% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 8%.

Polymarket

Yes8%

Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 20278%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

No data available

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 1 pair

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $2.7K · K 4.4K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement that the leader will leave within the next year counts even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa. This market will close and expire early if the leader resigns or announces resignation.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $2.7K · K 4.4K contracts
Coverage: 2 of 2 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Ed Davey resign as the Liberal Democrats leader before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXDAVEYOUT-27JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdaveyout-27jan01
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement that the leader will leave within the next year counts even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the leader resigns or announces resignation.

Contract: Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5619700; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ed-davey-out-as-liberal-democrats-leader-by-december-31
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $2.7K
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ed Davey ceases to be Leader of the Liberal Democrats for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ed Davey's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5619700 / kalshi-KXDAVEYOUT-27JAN01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Ed Davey resign as the Liberal Democrats leader before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?"; listed deadline 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 30, 2026, 3:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

Volume$4.43K

Markets1

POLYMARKETPolitics

Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ed Davey ceases to be Leader of the Liberal Democrats for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ed Davey's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$2.74K

Markets1

1 of 1

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Will Ed Davey resign as the Liberal Democrats leader before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Ed Davey resign as the Liberal Democrats leader before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?"; listed deadline 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 03:49:44 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Ed Davey resign as the Liberal Democrats leader before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 8.0¢
No: 92.0¢

polymarket

Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?

Yes: 8.0¢
No: 92.0¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

PM $300.8K · K 14.2K contracts

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 8%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

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PM Yes 8.5%Rules differK Yes 24%

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before December 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 13%Rules differK Yes 24%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader?

K 28.7K contracts

Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 50%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 10, 2026 UTC

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Next Market Deadline

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Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/DQ3ig-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?"></iframe>

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Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?

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