$1.43K
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7
$1.43K
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7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve removes the listed map from the official map pool by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the removal lasts continuously for at least 48 hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Temporary or testing removals reversed within 48 hours do not count. The "official map pool" refers to the Active Duty map group in CS2, used for competitive matchmaking (Premier mode) and professional tournaments. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valv
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain removal of the map Train from CS2's official Active Duty pool by June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at 99%, implying a 99% probability the event occurs. This price indicates the market views the removal as virtually guaranteed, with almost no perceived chance of Train remaining in the competitive rotation through the deadline. Total market volume is thin at approximately $1,000 across seven related map-specific markets, suggesting limited liquidity but strong consensus on this specific outcome.
Two primary factors explain the extreme market confidence. First, historical map pool precedent set by Valve shows a consistent pattern of rotating older maps out for new or reworked ones, especially following major updates or operations. Train, despite its classic status, has seen declining pick rates in Premier mode and has been absent from several recent professional tournament map lists, signaling its diminished competitive priority.
Second, direct developer signals and the CS2 lifecycle contribute. Valve has been actively curating the CS2 map pool for balance and visual overhaul since launch, removing legacy maps like Dust II from Active Duty for periods of rework. With the multi-year resolution window, the market is betting on at least one significant map pool update before mid-2026, and Train is the most logical candidate for removal given its age and the community's shift toward newer arenas like Anubis.
The 99% price leaves little room for error, but odds could theoretically shift with unexpected Valve communication or a change in development strategy. A clear statement from Valve affirming Train's long-term place in the pool before June 2026 would challenge the consensus, though such direct developer commentary is rare. The main catalyst for a "No" outcome would be a major, well-received rework of Train that reintegrates it into the competitive meta, similar to the Nuke overhaul years ago. However, with the community and pros increasingly focused on newer maps, any such rework before the deadline is considered a low-probability scenario by the market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns potential changes to the official competitive map pool in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), the premier tactical first-person shooter developed by Valve Corporation. Specifically, it asks which maps Valve will remove from the Active Duty map group by June 30, 2026. The Active Duty pool is the curated set of maps used in CS2's Premier competitive matchmaking mode and in all major professional tournaments, including the Intel Extreme Masters, BLAST Premier, and the PGL Major Championships. Map rotations are a critical aspect of the game's meta, directly influencing professional strategies, public matchmaking experiences, and the broader esports ecosystem. Valve periodically updates this pool to refresh the competitive landscape, address balance issues, or introduce community-favored maps, making the timing and selection of removals a subject of intense speculation among players, analysts, and bettors. The market resolves based on a removal that lasts continuously for at least 48 hours, excluding temporary testing changes, ensuring it tracks only substantive, official decisions made by the game's developer. Interest in this topic stems from Valve's historically opaque and unpredictable update schedule, where map changes can dramatically shift team fortunes and betting odds overnight. The community closely scrutinizes player sentiment on platforms like Reddit, professional win rates on specific maps, and data from services like Leetify to forecast which maps are most vulnerable to removal.
Valve's management of the competitive map pool has evolved significantly since the release of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive in 2012. Initially, map rotations were infrequent and tied primarily to major championship cycles. A landmark precedent was set with the removal of de_dust2, the game's most iconic map, from the Active Duty pool in February 2017 for a substantial rework. This demonstrated Valve's willingness to remove even the most popular maps for the long-term health of the game. The introduction of the 'Scrimmage' mode and later the 'Premier' mode formalized the distinction between the competitive Active Duty pool and a more casual map group. Major map overhauls, such as the complete reimagining of Inferno in 2016 and Nuke in 2015, often followed their temporary removal from the pool. More recent history shows an accelerated pace of change with CS2's release. Ancient was added and subsequently adjusted multiple times based on professional feedback. The most recent major shake-up occurred in March 2024, when Valve removed Overpass and Ancient, adding new versions of Train and Dust2 to the pool. This pattern establishes a 12-18 month cycle for significant pool adjustments, often aligning with the conclusion of a Major tournament cycle to minimize disruption to professional teams.
Map pool changes have profound implications for the entire Counter-Strike ecosystem. For the multi-million dollar professional esports scene, a team's viability can hinge on its mastery of a specific map. The removal of a team's strongest map can instantly devalue its roster and strategy, affecting organization contracts, sponsorship appeal, and betting markets. Conversely, a new map can create opportunities for underdog teams to compete. Economically, map changes influence the in-game skin market, as the popularity and visibility of maps drive demand for related weapon skins and stickers from tournaments held on those maps. For the average player, map rotations directly affect the matchmaking experience, forcing adaptation to new layouts and strategies. This constant evolution is crucial for maintaining player engagement over years, preventing the meta from becoming stale. Downstream consequences include shifts in content creation, as guide-makers and analysts must produce new material, and in community server ecosystems, where map popularity dictates which community servers remain populated.
As of late 2024, the Active Duty pool consists of Mirage, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient, Anubis, Vertigo, and the newly reintroduced Train. The most recent change was the removal of Overpass in March 2024. Community discourse is currently focused on the perceived staleness of Mirage and the performance of the reworked Train in the professional meta. Data from early tournaments on the new Train map is being analyzed for balance and reception. Valve has not given any public indication of impending changes, maintaining its typical silence until an official announcement is made. Speculation is heightened as the competitive calendar moves past the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, a traditional juncture for Valve to implement changes.
Valve's decisions are based on a combination of quantitative data and qualitative feedback. They analyze professional pick/ban rates, public matchmaking statistics, win rate balance, and community sentiment from forums and social media. Maps that are rarely played, exhibit severe balance issues, or are broadly disliked by the player base are the most likely candidates for removal.
Removed maps are typically moved to the 'Reserve' or 'Scrimmage' map pool, where they remain playable in casual and community game modes but are no longer part of competitive Premier matchmaking or available for selection in professional tournament veto processes. Some maps, like Cache, have been removed and later reworked by community creators before being reconsidered.
Yes, Valve has done this in the past, most notably with Dust2. However, for the purpose of this prediction market, such a temporary removal does not count unless it lasts continuously for at least 48 hours. The market is designed to resolve only on permanent, official decisions.
Map removals can impact the value of souvenir skins and stickers from tournaments played on that map. If a map is removed, souvenir packages from that map cease to drop, potentially increasing the rarity and value of existing skins. Conversely, stickers for teams that excelled on a removed map may lose some relevance.
They are one and the same. The Active Duty map group is the exact set of maps used in CS2's Premier competitive matchmaking mode. This market specifically references this official group, not the broader set of maps available in other game modes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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7 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 99% |
| Poly | 49% |
| Poly | 32% |
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 23% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 16% |
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