Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actor Winner
Total Volume
$1.85K
Events
1
Markets
10
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actor Winner
Vol
$1.85K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
10
$1.85K
1
10
$1.85K
1
10
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 35% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 6% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Supporting Actor category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed p
Prediction markets currently assign Stellan Skarsgård a 41% chance of winning the Best Supporting Actor award at the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards. This probability, trading at 41¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views his victory as plausible but slightly leaning against it, essentially a toss-up with a mild disadvantage. With only $2,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is exceptionally thin, meaning this price is more suggestive than strongly established and could be volatile to new information.
Skarsgård’s current positioning is primarily driven by his acclaimed performance in “The Last Voyage,” a major historical drama considered a strong awards contender. His status as a respected veteran actor with prior BAFTA nominations (but no wins in this category) provides a credible narrative. However, the 41% price reflects significant uncertainty because the BAFTA nominations have not yet been announced (scheduled for January 27, 2026). The market is essentially pricing based on early critical buzz and festival reactions, not a confirmed competitive field. Historically, BAFTA’s supporting actor category can align with or diverge from other major awards, adding another layer of unpredictability at this early stage.
The immediate catalyst is the nomination announcement on January 27, 2026. Failure to secure a nomination would cause this contract to plummet to near-zero. A nomination would likely boost his odds, but the subsequent focus will shift to competition from other nominees and momentum from guild awards (like SAG) in early February. The thin market volume means any significant professional oddsmaker update or major critics’ award could cause a sharp price movement. The final pre-ceremony odds will solidify after the BAFTA jury’s voting window closes following the nominations.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The BAFTA Film Awards Best Supporting Actor category recognizes outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role in a film released during the preceding year. The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) presents this award annually as part of its prestigious film awards ceremony, which is considered one of the most significant honors in the British and international film industry. For the 2026 ceremony, nominations will be announced on January 27, 2026, with the winner revealed during the ceremony on February 22, 2026. This prediction market allows participants to speculate on which nominated actor will receive the award based on film industry trends, critical reception, and historical voting patterns of BAFTA's approximately 8,000 voting members. The outcome will be determined by the official BAFTA announcement, with a resolution deadline of April 30, 2026, should no winner be declared by that time. Interest in this market stems from the award's reputation as a key indicator of both critical acclaim and potential success at other major awards, particularly the Academy Awards, often influencing career trajectories and film marketing campaigns. The supporting actor category frequently features established veterans delivering career-defining performances alongside breakthrough roles from rising stars, making it one of the more unpredictable and closely watched competitions each awards season.
The BAFTA Awards were first presented in 1949, with supporting performance categories introduced later as the ceremony evolved. The Best Supporting Actor category in its current form has been awarded consistently since 1969, though supporting performances were recognized within broader categories in earlier years. Historically, BAFTA voting has shown distinct patterns, often favoring British performers and films with UK connections, though this tendency has diminished in recent decades as the organization expanded its international membership. The awards underwent significant reform in 2020 following criticism about lack of diversity in nominations, resulting in changes to voting procedures and the introduction of mandatory viewing requirements for voters in key categories. These reforms immediately impacted outcomes, with more diverse winners emerging in subsequent ceremonies. The supporting actor category has frequently served as a predictor for the Academy Awards, with 14 of the last 20 BAFTA supporting actor winners going on to win the Oscar in the same year, though this correlation is not absolute. Notable historical winners include Daniel Kaluuya for 'Judas and the Black Messiah' (2021), Mahershala Ali for 'Moonlight' (2017), and Heath Ledger posthumously for 'The Dark Knight' (2009), with Ledger's win demonstrating BAFTA's willingness to recognize performances in popular genre films alongside traditional awards fare.
The BAFTA Best Supporting Actor award carries significant professional and financial implications for winners and nominees. Recognition often leads to increased casting opportunities, higher salary negotiations, and greater creative control in future projects. For films still in theatrical release or upcoming in international markets, a BAFTA win can substantially boost box office performance and streaming viewership, particularly in the UK and Europe where BAFTA recognition carries special weight. The award also influences the broader awards ecosystem, as BAFTA voting occurs after the Golden Globes but before the Academy Awards, positioning it as a crucial momentum-builder during awards season. Beyond individual careers, the outcome reflects broader industry trends regarding the types of performances and films being celebrated, with recent years showing increased recognition for diverse stories and performers following BAFTA's diversity initiatives. The selection signals to studios and producers what kinds of supporting performances resonate with industry peers, potentially influencing future casting and production decisions across the film industry.
As of late 2025, the eligibility period for the 2026 BAFTA Awards includes films released between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, in the UK. The awards season is underway with several films featuring notable supporting performances already generating awards buzz from fall film festivals including Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. BAFTA has confirmed that the 2026 ceremony will maintain the diversity standards introduced in recent years, requiring films to meet certain inclusion benchmarks to be eligible for the Outstanding British Film and Outstanding Debut categories, though these standards do not directly apply to performance categories. The organization continues its expanded voting membership initiative, with new members joining throughout 2025 potentially influencing voting patterns. The longlist stage, where all eligible performances are considered before nominations are finalized, will begin in early January 2026 ahead of the January 27 nomination announcement.
Nominations are determined through a two-stage process. First, all BAFTA members vote within their specific chapter (actors vote in acting categories) to create a longlist. Then, a nominating committee reviews the longlist and selects the final nominees, with the entire membership voting to determine the winner from among those nominees.
Films must have been released theatrically in the United Kingdom between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. Films receiving their first public screening at a recognized film festival or via certain online platforms may also qualify under specific conditions outlined in BAFTA's rules.
BAFTA uses chapter voting for nominations (where actors nominate actors), while the Oscars use branch voting. BAFTA also has a nominating committee that finalizes nominees from longlists, whereas Oscar nominations come directly from branch votes. Additionally, BAFTA requires voters to confirm they have viewed nominated films in key categories.
No, BAFTA rules require that each performer be entered in only one acting category per film. The film's distributor typically determines category placement during submission, though BAFTA reserves the right to reassign performances they believe have been placed in the incorrect category.
According to BAFTA's rules, in the event of a tie, both performers would receive the award. However, this has never occurred in the Best Supporting Actor category's history. The prediction market specifies that a tie would result in resolution according to the market's published rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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