Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Austin on October 12?

Name: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 12?
End: 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.16

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Austin on October 12?

Vol

$11.16

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.16

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.16

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on October 12?	Poly	50%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 12?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on October 12?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$11.16

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data"

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Austin on October 12?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 12, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading und"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11
* **Total Liquidity:** $778
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $11
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate