Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US Leading Economic Index change in September

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$5.00

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US Leading Economic Index change in September

Vol

$5.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.00

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8 markets tracked

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?	Kalshi	86%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?	Kalshi	81%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?	Kalshi	66%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?	Kalshi	39%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	29%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.1%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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97%

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$5.00

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About This Event

September 2026 If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®, “LEI”, for the United States. This market will resolve using the month-over-month percent change for September 2026 stated in the first Conference Board release that reports the September 2026 LEI. The market will use the percent change expressly repor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Leading Economic Index change in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®, “LEI”, for the United States. This market will resolve using the month-over-month percent change for September 2026 stated in the first Conference Board release that reports the September 2026 LEI. The market will use the percent change expressly repor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above 

-0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US Leading Economic Index change in September

Volume$5.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above -0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi

KALSHI

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi

KALSHI

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above -0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi

KALSHI

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi

KALSHI

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

If the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Leading Economic Index refers to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (“LEI”) for the United States. This market wi

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US Leading Economic Index change in September

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Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

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Events (1)

US Leading Economic Index change in September

Markets (8)

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

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Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US Leading Economic Index change in September

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.5%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.3%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will the MoM percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026 be above -0.1%?

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