GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

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Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

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3 markets tracked

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Kalshi	67%
Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Kalshi	18%
Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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67%

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About This Event

In 2028 If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is X then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turkish presidential election: first round winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is X then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Mansur Yavaş, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)
- **Kalshi** (End: May 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

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KALSHI

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: T

KALSHI

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Ekrem İmamoğlu, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This ma

KALSHI

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Mansur Yavaş, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This mark

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/DYLMyF" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Turkish presidential election: first round winner?"></iframe>

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Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

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Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

Markets (3)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election? (Mansur Yavaş)

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