Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Total Volume

$14.95K

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Markets

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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Vol

$14.95K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $14.95K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.95K

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	88%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	78%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	71%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	45%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	28%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$14.95K

Volume

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About This Event

Friedrich Merz If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. T

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Friedrich Merz

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. T

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $587
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $505
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $757
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $564
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Volume$14.95K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori

KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori

KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori

KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori

KALSHI

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authori

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46¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Da3hW7" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?"></iframe>

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Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Markets (7)

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

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Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

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