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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela’s current leader, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, is removed from power for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rodríguez will be considered to be removed from power if she resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Acting President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market wi
Prediction markets currently price a 43% probability that Delcy Rodríguez will be removed as Venezuela's acting president by December 31, 2026. This price, trading at 43¢ for a "Yes" outcome on Polymarket, indicates the market views her removal as a significant possibility but slightly less likely than her remaining in power. With nearly a year until resolution and moderate liquidity, this reflects a highly uncertain political environment where substantial risk is priced in.
The primary factor is the precarious nature of Rodríguez's position. She was appointed acting president by Nicolás Maduro in April 2024 while he campaigned for re-election, making her role inherently temporary and contingent on Maduro's continued favor. Her political fate is directly tied to the stability of the Maduro regime itself. Second, Venezuela's severe economic crisis and ongoing sanctions pressure create a volatile backdrop where rapid political changes, including reshufflings at the highest level, are common. Historical precedent in Venezuela shows that high-profile officials can be removed abruptly to manage political crises or as sacrificial lambs. Third, the scheduled presidential election on July 28, 2024, is a critical near-term catalyst. The election's outcome and aftermath could trigger immediate political realignments within the ruling PSUV party that affect Rodríguez's standing, even though this market resolves well after that date.
The immediate odds will be most sensitive to the aftermath of the July 2024 presidential election. A contested result or significant unrest could force a government reshuffle, potentially making Rodríguez's removal more likely as a political concession or internal power play. Conversely, a calm consolidation of power by Maduro post-election would likely decrease the near-term probability of her ouster. Over the longer timeline to December 2026, key risks include a dramatic worsening of the economic crisis prompting a change in leadership, or a major geopolitical shift, such as a significant change in U.S. sanctions policy that alters the regime's calculus. The market's current pricing suggests traders are waiting for clarity post-July before establishing a stronger directional trend.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the political stability of Venezuela's current acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, and whether she will be removed from power by a specified date. Rodríguez assumed the role of acting president on June 28, 2024, following the temporary suspension of President Nicolás Maduro's duties, a move that has created significant uncertainty within Venezuela's political landscape. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Rodríguez resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses her position or is prevented from fulfilling her duties as acting president by the deadline. This question is central to understanding the immediate future of Venezuela's government, which has been characterized by a complex power-sharing arrangement between the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and the military. The interest in this market stems from Venezuela's ongoing economic crisis, international sanctions, and the fragile nature of its political institutions, making leadership transitions particularly volatile events with wide-reaching consequences. Observers are closely monitoring internal party dynamics, military loyalty, and potential constitutional challenges that could precipitate Rodríguez's removal.
Venezuela has experienced significant political instability since the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, presided over a severe economic collapse, hyperinflation, and a humanitarian crisis, leading to widespread protests and international sanctions. The political system has been marked by the erosion of democratic institutions, including the 2017 creation of a National Constituent Assembly to bypass the opposition-controlled National Assembly. A major precedent for this market is the contested 2019 presidential crisis, where Juan Guaidó, as president of the National Assembly, declared himself interim president, leading to a parallel government recognized by dozens of countries. This period highlighted the fragility of executive authority in Venezuela. The concept of an 'acting president' is not new but is fraught with risk. In 2002, during a brief coup against Hugo Chávez, businessman Pedro Carmona assumed the presidency for less than two days before Chávez was restored, demonstrating how quickly power can change hands. The current situation with Delcy Rodríguez tests whether the PSUV's internal mechanisms for succession can maintain stability without the central figure of Maduro actively governing.
The question of Delcy Rodríguez's tenure matters profoundly for Venezuela's future. Economically, her removal could trigger further volatility in the already fragile economic recovery efforts, impact negotiations over international sanctions, and influence the country's ability to manage its oil production and debt. A sudden leadership change could scare off potential foreign investors and disrupt the limited economic agreements currently in place. Politically, her removal would signal deep fractures within the ruling PSUV and possibly within the military, potentially opening a period of intense internal struggle or even a broader political crisis. This could either pave the way for a more negotiated transition or lead to a more authoritarian consolidation by another faction. For the Venezuelan people, continued instability means a prolongation of the humanitarian crisis, affecting access to food, medicine, and basic services. Regionally, a change in Caracas could alter diplomatic relations with allies like Cuba, Russia, and Iran, and adversaries like the United States and Colombia, reshaping geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere.
As of late 2024, Delcy Rodríguez remains in the role of acting president. The official reason for President Maduro's suspension has not been fully clarified by the government, leading to persistent speculation about his health and the permanence of this arrangement. Rodríguez has made several public appearances and announced minor cabinet adjustments, attempting to project normalcy. However, there are no signs of a definitive resolution to Maduro's status, and Rodríguez's authority is being tested by ongoing economic difficulties and the need to manage relations with both hardline party members and the military. The opposition continues to contest the legitimacy of the entire government structure.
Delcy Rodríguez was appointed acting president on June 28, 2024, following the temporary suspension of President Nicolás Maduro's duties. The official government communication cited the need for Maduro to focus on other state matters, though widespread reports and speculation suggest underlying health issues were the primary cause.
An acting president, like Delcy Rodríguez, is a constitutional successor who assumes the duties of the president when the sitting president is temporarily unavailable. An interim president, as claimed by Juan Guaidó in 2019, is a figure declared by the opposition during a perceived vacancy of the presidency, claiming legitimacy through a different constitutional interpretation.
Yes, the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) holds decisive power in Venezuelan politics. While a direct coup is possible, a more likely scenario would be the military withdrawing its support, which would make her position untenable and could lead to a forced resignation or a political maneuver by rivals within the ruling party.
The US has temporarily eased some oil and gas sanctions based on electoral commitments. The stability and actions of the acting government are critical. If Rodríguez is removed, causing renewed political turmoil, the US could reverse these sanctions relief measures, tightening economic pressure on the country.
If Maduro returns and reassumes the presidency, Delcy Rodríguez would almost certainly revert to her previous role, likely as Executive Vice President. This would resolve the market to 'No', as her removal would not have occurred within the specified timeframe.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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