Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

Name: Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?
End: 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z

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$2.82K

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Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

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$2.82K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $2.82K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.82K

100%

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25 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	50%
Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	50%
Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	49%
Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	28%
Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	25%
Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	1%
Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	1%
Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	0%
Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	0%
Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on October 12?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$2.82K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probabilit

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probabilit

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chicago, IL falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 49.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Indianapolis, IN face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Louisville, KY face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.1% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 49.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.2% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Tampa, FL face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.1% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $60
  DATA: [Yes: 49.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.3% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $110
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

Volume$2.82K

Markets25

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POLYMARKET

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.8¢No 50.2¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wichita, KS falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages

POLYMARKET

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.6¢No 50.4¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Des Moines, IA falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentag

POLYMARKET

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.4¢No 50.6¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if San Antonio, TX falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percenta

POLYMARKET

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fort Worth, TX falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentag

POLYMARKET

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlanta, GA falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages

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Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

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Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

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Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

Markets (25)

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

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Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which cities face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Wichita, KS face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Des Moines, IA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on October 12?

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