Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Total Volume

$23.19K

Events

Markets

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Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Vol

$23.19K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $23.19K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.19K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?	Kalshi	83%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?	Kalshi	17%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$23.19K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Nov 2, 2026 meeting If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 2, 2026 meeting

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple po"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Volume$23.19K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple po

KALSHI

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of hike 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rate

KALSHI

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates

KALSHI

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of hike more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple pol

KALSHI

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple poli

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20¢

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Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

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Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

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Events (1)

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Markets (5)

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

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Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

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