Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Name: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$77.15K

Events

Markets

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Vol

$77.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $77.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $77.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?	Poly	92%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?	Poly	64%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	Poly	64%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	Poly	36%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?	Poly	32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?	Poly	25%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?	Poly	17%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?	Poly	11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	Poly	7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in October?	Poly	6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $840 in October?	Poly	4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $820 in October?	Poly	3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?	Poly	3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?	Poly	2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $830 in October?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$77.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $69.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $202.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.34)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $830 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $328
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $820 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $840 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $180
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Volume$77.15K

Markets15

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POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

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Next Market Closes

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 01, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

24¢

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

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Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Markets (15)

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

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Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in October?

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Discussion

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