This prediction market topic concerns the potential removal of countries from President Donald Trump's December 16, 2025, travel ban proclamation before January 31, 2026. The proclamation, formally titled 'Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,' represents the latest iteration of executive actions restricting entry from specific nations, a policy framework first introduced in 2017. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any country named in the 2025 proclamation is fully removed from the list of nations subject to entry suspensions by the deadline. A removal is defined as an official action by the President, the Executive Branch, or a federal court that eliminates all entry restrictions for that country's nationals. This topic sits at the intersection of immigration policy, national security, executive authority, and international relations, generating significant public and political interest. The specific January 31, 2026, deadline creates a clear timeframe for assessing policy stability during the early phase of a potential second Trump term or the final days of another administration, making it a focal point for observers tracking the durability and evolution of U.S. immigration restrictions. The outcome has direct implications for thousands of prospective travelers, students, and immigrants, as well as for diplomatic relations with the affected countries.

Historical Context

The travel ban policy originated on January 27, 2017, when President Trump signed Executive Order 13769, 'Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States.' This first version imposed a 90-day entry ban on nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, and sparked immediate legal challenges and widespread protests at airports. A revised order, Executive Order 13780, was issued on March 6, 2017, removing Iraq from the list and clarifying exemptions. After further litigation, the policy was formalized through a presidential proclamation, Proclamation 9645, on September 24, 2017. This third version added non-Muslim-majority countries Chad, North Korea, and Venezuela, and removed Sudan. The Supreme Court ultimately upheld this proclamation in a 5-4 decision in Trump v. Hawaii on June 26, 2018, ruling the President had broad statutory authority to suspend entry. A subsequent proclamation in January 2020, Proclamation 9983, added restrictions on six additional countries, including Nigeria and Myanmar. The December 2025 proclamation represents a continuation and potential expansion of this executive policy framework, which has remained a contentious feature of U.S. immigration law for nearly a decade.

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