Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 76% chance that The Perfect Neighbor will win the 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. This price, found on Polymarket, signals strong confidence in the film's frontrunner status. On Kalshi, the same contract trades at a slightly lower 72.8%, creating a 3.2% spread. A probability in the mid-70s means the market views a win as the clear expected outcome, but leaves room for a significant upset. Combined trading volume across platforms exceeds $109,000, indicating solid liquidity and trader engagement for an event over a year away.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The Perfect Neighbor’s dominant market position stems from its early critical reception and timely subject matter. The documentary examines the modern housing crisis through a hyper-local lens, a theme with proven Oscar appeal for the documentary branch. Its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival generated immediate awards buzz, with trade publications like Variety labeling it a standout. Historically, documentaries that secure major festival acclaim and address a pressing social issue often maintain momentum throughout the long awards cycle. The current pricing suggests traders believe this film has already established a narrative that will be difficult for competitors to overcome.

What Could Change These Odds

The primary threat to this consensus is the upcoming festival circuit. Major fall festivals like Telluride, Toronto, and the New York Film Festival, which begin in September 2025, are traditional launchpads for Oscar-bound documentaries. A rival film could emerge from one of these events with overwhelming critical praise, shifting the narrative. The odds will also be sensitive to the official shortlist announcement from the Academy, typically in December 2025. If The Perfect Neighbor is omitted from that list, the contract would immediately collapse to near-zero. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to new information from industry screenings and filmmaker campaigns.

Cross-Platform Analysis

The consistent 3-4% price gap between Polymarket (76%) and Kalshi (72.8%) is notable. This spread likely exists due to platform-specific trader bases and minor differences in liquidity access. Polymarket's global, crypto-native users may be more aggressive in pricing established frontrunners. Kalshi’s US-regulated, cash-based platform might attract slightly more risk-averse traders. The spread presents a textbook arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "Yes" contract on Kalshi while selling it on Polymarket, locking in a profit if the price difference converges. However, the 21-month settlement period and platform withdrawal rules make this trade operationally complex, explaining why the gap persists.