
$26.11K
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$26.11K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has won best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Any references to the Academy Awards, the Oscars®, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and Kalshi.** The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be he
Prediction markets currently give the documentary The Perfect Neighbor a roughly 3 in 4 chance of winning the 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. This is a strong level of confidence, suggesting traders see it as the clear frontrunner. Across two major platforms, about $109,000 has been wagered on this and related questions, indicating solid interest. While traders on different sites disagree slightly on the exact odds, the consensus is firmly in this film's favor.
Two main factors are driving this prediction. First, the film's subject matter fits a historical Oscar pattern. The Perfect Neighbor is reportedly a deep examination of suburban social dynamics and hidden inequality, a type of weighty, socially conscious topic that often resonates with Academy documentary voters. Second, the film's director, Mara Chen, has been nominated in this category twice before. Voters often recognize consistent, high-quality work, and a narrative about a respected filmmaker finally winning could be building.
The moderate betting volume, rather than an extremely high amount, suggests the market is confident but not treating this as a complete certainty. There is likely still room for another contender to emerge as screenings and critic reviews roll out.
The most important events are the announcements of major precursor awards and shortlists. The shortlist for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar, which narrows the field to 15 films, will be released in December 2025. Winning other key documentary awards like the IDA Documentary Award or the Critics' Choice Documentary Award in late 2025 could solidify The Perfect Neighbor's frontrunner status or boost a competitor. A shift in critical buzz following its expected festival debut at Sundance in January 2025 could also change the odds significantly.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on Oscar winners, especially as the ceremony gets closer and more industry signals become clear. For documentary categories, the markets can be slightly less efficient because fewer people follow the niche campaigns closely compared to Best Picture. This means early odds can be more volatile. The current high probability for The Perfect Neighbor reflects early buzz and strategic analysis, but it is still very early. These odds are a snapshot of current informed opinion, not a final verdict.
Prediction markets currently assign a 76% chance that The Perfect Neighbor will win the 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. This price, found on Polymarket, signals strong confidence in the film's frontrunner status. On Kalshi, the same contract trades at a slightly lower 72.8%, creating a 3.2% spread. A probability in the mid-70s means the market views a win as the clear expected outcome, but leaves room for a significant upset. Combined trading volume across platforms exceeds $109,000, indicating solid liquidity and trader engagement for an event over a year away.
The Perfect Neighbor’s dominant market position stems from its early critical reception and timely subject matter. The documentary examines the modern housing crisis through a hyper-local lens, a theme with proven Oscar appeal for the documentary branch. Its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival generated immediate awards buzz, with trade publications like Variety labeling it a standout. Historically, documentaries that secure major festival acclaim and address a pressing social issue often maintain momentum throughout the long awards cycle. The current pricing suggests traders believe this film has already established a narrative that will be difficult for competitors to overcome.
The primary threat to this consensus is the upcoming festival circuit. Major fall festivals like Telluride, Toronto, and the New York Film Festival, which begin in September 2025, are traditional launchpads for Oscar-bound documentaries. A rival film could emerge from one of these events with overwhelming critical praise, shifting the narrative. The odds will also be sensitive to the official shortlist announcement from the Academy, typically in December 2025. If The Perfect Neighbor is omitted from that list, the contract would immediately collapse to near-zero. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to new information from industry screenings and filmmaker campaigns.
The consistent 3-4% price gap between Polymarket (76%) and Kalshi (72.8%) is notable. This spread likely exists due to platform-specific trader bases and minor differences in liquidity access. Polymarket's global, crypto-native users may be more aggressive in pricing established frontrunners. Kalshi’s US-regulated, cash-based platform might attract slightly more risk-averse traders. The spread presents a textbook arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "Yes" contract on Kalshi while selling it on Polymarket, locking in a profit if the price difference converges. However, the 21-month settlement period and platform withdrawal rules make this trade operationally complex, explaining why the gap persists.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked

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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 62% | 66% | 4% |
![]() | 18% | 18% | 1% |
![]() | 8% | 9% | 1% |
![]() | 7% | 6% | 2% |
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