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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Name: How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.91K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?

Vol

$20.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	24%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	20%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	18%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	14%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	9%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	6%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	4%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$20.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Haza"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience