Science prediction markets

Hantavirus Public Health Emergency of International Concern by 2026?Yes 3.9%

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

K 2.02M contracts

PM $8.13M · K 629.5K contracts

PolymarketKalshiClimate

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Kalshi: Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 97.9%Rules differK Yes 96.5%

Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Kalshi: Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 88.5%Rules differK Yes 84.5%

Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Kalshi: Will there be more than 7000 measles cases in 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 53%Rules differK Yes 56%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

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4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiEntertainment

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Kalshi: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Gemini)

Related contracts

PM Yes 73.8%Rules differK Yes 36.9%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Kalshi: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Claude)

Related contracts

PM Yes 47.5%Rules differK Yes 45.6%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Kalshi: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Claude)

Related contracts

PM Yes 25.5%Rules differK Yes 45.6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

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15 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?Yes 6.3%

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

K 833.7K contracts

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 80.5%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

PM $3.79M

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes 19.5%

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?Yes 0.3%

+3 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)Yes 98.5%

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

K 741.1K contracts

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)Yes 79.5%

How many launches will SpaceX have in Dec 2026? (Above 145)Yes 27.5%

+7 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC

PolymarketKalshiCulture

Top artist on Spotify in 2026?

PM $1.73M · K 816.5K contracts

Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?

Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Bad Bunny)

Related contracts

PM Yes 85.5%Rules differK Yes 85.5%

Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?

Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Taylor Swift)

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.3%Rules differK Yes 11.5%

Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?

Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Drake)

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.1%Rules differK Yes 3.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

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9 saved comparisonsNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiCulture

Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album · Features

K 714.4K contracts

Will SZA be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album?Yes 99.5%

Will Rauw Alejandro be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album?Yes 99.5%

Will PinkPantheress be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album?Yes 99.5%

+127 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yes 2.5%

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

PM $595.2K

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 10%

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

K 713.7K contracts

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 2.5%

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?Yes 1.5%

3 mktsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 58.5%

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

PM $525.0K

Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 35%

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 1.1%

+5 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiScience

NASA lands on the moon?

K 554.0K contracts

Will NASA land a person on the Moon by 2029?Yes 41.5%

Will NASA land a person on the Moon by 2028?Yes 23.5%

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2028?Yes 3.1%

+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Plague pandemic in 2026?Yes 1.8%

Plague pandemic in 2026?

PM $493.0K

PM $460.4K · K 10.2K contracts

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Related contracts

PM Yes 64.5%Rules differK Yes 68.5%

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 24.5%Rules differK Yes 40%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

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2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC

KalshiScience

Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026

K 522.7K contracts

Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 80,000 jobs?Yes 97.5%

Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs?Yes 96.5%

Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 82,000 jobs?Yes 92.5%

+10 moreNext deadline May 7, 2027 UTC

Best AI in Oct 2026? (Gemini)Yes 75.5%

Best AI in Oct 2026?

K 507.9K contracts

Best AI in Oct 2026? (Claude)Yes 22.5%

Best AI in Oct 2026? (Muse)Yes 1.5%

+4 moreNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Yes 77.2%

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

PM $336.4K

Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?Yes 8.8%

Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?Yes 4.8%

+3 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Google market share this week? (Above 19.5%)Yes 99.5%

Google market share this week

K 464.8K contracts

Google market share this week? (Above 18.9%)Yes 99.5%

Google market share this week? (Above 18.7%)Yes 99.5%

+6 moreNext deadline Oct 19, 2026 UTC

PM $325.4K · K 867.0K contracts

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Kalshi: Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

Related contracts

PM Yes 8.5%Rules differK Yes 6.7%

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1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

PM $277.7K · K 140.2K contracts

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Kalshi: Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 8%

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1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

OpenAI market share this week? (Above 18.1%)Yes 99.5%

OpenAI market share this week

K 431.0K contracts

OpenAI market share this week? (Above 17.1%)Yes 99.5%

OpenAI market share this week? (Above 15.1%)Yes 99.5%

+6 moreNext deadline Oct 19, 2026 UTC

Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?Yes 14.5%

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

K 424.9K contracts

Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?Yes 10.5%

Will ByteDance have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?Yes 7.5%

+9 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

PM $132.9K · K 433.3K contracts

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 12%Rules differK Yes 5.5%

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1 saved comparisonNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

Will the FDA approve Any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?Yes 20.5%

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

K 413.9K contracts

1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Yes 4.2%

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

PM $111.3K

DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 23.9%)Yes 99.5%

DeepSeek market share this week

K 403.1K contracts

DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 23.2%)Yes 99.5%

DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 21.7%)Yes 99.5%

+6 moreNext deadline Oct 19, 2026 UTC

Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Yes 1.9%

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

PM $94.8K

1 mktNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

KalshiHealth

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

K 386.7K contracts

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 71.5%

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 34.5%

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 29.5%

+12 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC

Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 76.1%

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

PM $60.3K

Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 20%

Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 3.7%

+1 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2027 UTC

PM $45.2K · K 3.8K contracts

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release a personal AI agent before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 33.5%

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1 saved comparisonNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC

Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 83.2%

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

K 332.3K contracts

Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2030?Yes 58.5%

Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2029?Yes 29.5%

+2 moreNext deadline Jan 2, 2027 UTC

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 95.5%

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

K 271.1K contracts

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Las Vegas, NV before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 86%

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Sacramento, CA before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 16.5%

+16 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?Yes 3.1%

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

PM $28.1K

Best AI this week (Gemini)Yes 99.5%

Best AI this week

K 259.7K contracts

Best AI this week (Grok)Yes 0.5%

Best AI this week (ChatGPT)Yes 0.5%

+6 moreNext deadline Nov 19, 2026 UTC

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes >99.9%

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

PM $28.0K

Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes 97.9%

Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes 89%

+1 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?Yes 36%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

K 238.6K contracts

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?Yes 34%

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?Yes 18%

+1 moreNext deadline Oct 30, 2026 UTC

Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?Yes 2.3%

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

PM $20.5K

Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?Yes 1.8%

2 mktsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC

How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? (Above 6)Yes 99.5%

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

K 229.2K contracts

How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? (Above 7)Yes 98.5%

How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026? (Above 8)Yes 97.5%

+8 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC

Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?Yes 13%

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

PM $11.1K

Screwworm National Emergency declared by October 31?Yes 6.3%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

K 200.4K contracts

Will USAID be eliminated?Yes 17.5%

Will EPA be eliminated?Yes 11.3%

Will IRS be eliminated?Yes 7.4%

+1 moreNext deadline Jan 20, 2029 UTC

Will Jeff Bezos go to space before 2028?Yes 30%

Will Jeff Bezos go to space before 2028?

PM $167.51

1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?Yes 28.5%

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

K 193.9K contracts

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?Yes 15.5%

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?Yes 6.5%

+5 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?Yes 13%

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

K 184.8K contracts