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Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

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Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

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Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Before 2026 If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease X is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed X — a citizen Y diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Z do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Oct 1, 2026 do not qualify even if

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2026

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease X is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed X — a citizen Y diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Z do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Oct 1, 2026 do not qualify even if 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Zambia is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Zambia — a citi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

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KALSHI

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.0¢No 60.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in South Suda

KALSHI

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Burundi is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Burundi — a ci

KALSHI

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed

KALSHI

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Rwanda — a citi

KALSHI

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in United S

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/E-NyXr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?"></iframe>

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Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

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Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

Markets (16)

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

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Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

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