$18.67K
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$18.67K
2
64
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 NHL season If X wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign Jared Bednar a 51% probability of winning the 2025-26 NHL Jack Adams Award, awarded to the league's top head coach. This price, found on the leading market, indicates the market views his candidacy as a coin flip, slightly favoring him over the field. The thin $19,000 total volume across 64 related markets suggests this is a speculative, low-liquidity event. The market will resolve on June 30, 2026, following the season's conclusion.
Bednar's high valuation is primarily driven by his team's consistent regular-season dominance. As the head coach of the Colorado Avalanche, he oversees a perennial Stanley Cup contender with elite talent. Voters for the Jack Adams Award historically favor coaches whose teams significantly outperform preseason expectations or achieve remarkable point totals. If the Avalanche secure the Presidents' Trophy as the league's best regular-season team, Bednar would become an immediate frontrunner.
A secondary factor is narrative momentum. Bednar has never won the award despite his team's success, which can sometimes create a "career achievement" narrative in voting circles if his team has another standout season. The market is likely pricing in the combination of proven team quality and this unmet recognition.
The 51% price is highly sensitive to early-season team performance and emerging narratives from other clubs. A slow start for Colorado or a significant injury to a key star would rapidly diminish his odds. Conversely, a historically strong start would solidify his position as the favorite.
The largest threat is the emergence of a compelling alternative story, which is common for this award. If a team projected to finish near the bottom of the standings dramatically exceeds expectations and makes the playoffs, its coach will likely become the favorite. This narrative-driven shift often occurs in the second half of the season, meaning Bednar's odds could remain volatile until the final months.
A significant 38.5% pricing spread exists between Kalshi and Polymarket for related contracts, with Kalshi prices consistently higher. This substantial arbitrage opportunity is almost entirely explained by the extremely thin liquidity and high transaction costs across these small markets. The wide spread reflects a market with more opinion than capital, where prices are not efficiently set. For a trader, attempting to capture this spread would be risky due to the low volume and potential difficulty closing both positions.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The NHL Jack Adams Award is presented annually to the head coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success during the regular season. Named in honor of the late Jack Adams, a Hall of Fame player and longtime coach and general manager for the Detroit Red Wings, the award is voted on by members of the NHL Broadcasters' Association at the conclusion of the regular season. The 2025-26 season's winner will be announced at the NHL Awards ceremony in the summer of 2026. This prediction market specifically focuses on whether a designated individual, referred to as 'X', will win this prestigious coaching honor for that season. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if X is named the winner, and includes an early close condition should that event occur before the scheduled market expiration. Interest in this market stems from the award's reputation as a key indicator of coaching excellence and its strong correlation with team overachievement. Coaches who win the Jack Adams typically guide teams that significantly exceed preseason expectations, often overcoming injuries, roster turnover, or other adversity. The award has historically favored coaches whose teams make dramatic improvements in the standings, particularly those leading non-playoff teams from the previous season into the postseason. Bettors and analysts closely monitor early-season performance, roster construction, and team metrics to identify potential frontrunners, making this a dynamic market throughout the NHL season. The 2025-26 season will be particularly noteworthy as it follows the league's continued expansion and evolution of playing styles. Factors such as the integration of analytics into coaching strategies, the management of salary cap constraints, and the development of young talent will all play crucial roles in determining which coach stands out. The award's voting body, the broadcasters, often values compelling narratives, such as a first-year coach's immediate impact or a veteran coach engineering a remarkable turnaround, adding a layer of subjectivity that market participants must consider.
The Jack Adams Award was first presented at the conclusion of the 1973-74 NHL season, with the Montreal Canadiens' Scotty Bowman as its inaugural winner. The award's history reflects the evolution of coaching itself, from the bench-boss era to the modern, data-informed strategist. For decades, the award was almost exclusively given to coaches whose teams showed the greatest single-season improvement in points, cementing its identity as the 'turnaround' award. This trend is exemplified by winners like Pat Burns, who won it three times with three different teams (Montreal 1989, Toronto 1993, Boston 1998), each time for a massive single-season leap in the standings. In recent years, the criteria have subtly broadened. While team improvement remains paramount, voters have also recognized coaches who maintain excellence amid high expectations or significant adversity. For instance, Bruce Cassidy won in 2020 after guiding the Boston Bruins to the Presidents' Trophy, a testament to sustained dominance. Conversely, Darryl Sutter's win in 2022 for the Calgary Flames combined both elements, a dramatic 50-point improvement from the prior season. The award has never been won by the same coach in consecutive years, highlighting the voters' preference for new, compelling narratives each season. This historical pattern is crucial for assessing the chances of a recent winner like Rick Tocchet in the 2025-26 field.
Beyond recognizing individual achievement, the Jack Adams Award has tangible implications for the NHL ecosystem. For the winning coach, it often leads to contract extensions, increased job security, and a heightened reputation that can command a higher salary in future negotiations. It can also solidify a coach's philosophical approach, influencing hiring trends across the league as other teams seek to replicate a successful system. The award validates a specific coaching methodology, whether it's a heavy forecheck, a defensive structure, or an offensive breakout, and can shift league-wide tactical trends. The award also matters significantly to franchises and their fans. For a team, having a Jack Adams winner is a point of pride and a marketing tool, signaling that the organization is a well-run, competitive entity. It can boost ticket sales and local media interest. For the players, playing for a recognized coach can enhance their own profiles and development. On a broader level, the award race generates sustained narrative interest throughout the regular season, providing storylines for broadcasters and journalists and engaging fans in debates about leadership, strategy, and team building beyond mere win-loss records.
As of the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, the coaching landscape is set but dynamic. Rick Tocchet enters as the reigning champion after his transformative 2024 win with Vancouver. Several other recent finalists, like Andrew Brunette and Peter Laviolette, are entrenched in projects with high expectations. The offseason preceding the 2025-26 campaign will be critical, with free agency, trades, and draft selections altering team rosters and, consequently, the perceived potential and challenges for each head coach. Market analysis for the Jack Adams Award will intensify during the 2025 preseason, as prognosticators assess which teams have improved their rosters on paper and which coaches face the most intriguing blend of talent and adversity.
The award is voted on by the National Hockey League Broadcasters' Association (NHLBA). This group consists of television and radio play-by-play announcers and analysts from across the NHL, who cast their ballots at the conclusion of the regular season.
No coach has ever won the Jack Adams Award in back-to-back seasons. This historical precedent is a significant factor when evaluating the chances of a recent winner like Rick Tocchet in a future season.
The single most important factor is a team's dramatic improvement in the standings compared to the previous season, particularly securing a playoff berth after missing out. A compelling narrative of overcoming adversity is often more influential than simply having the best record.
The Jack Adams Award is a regular-season achievement voted on by broadcasters, recognizing a coach's impact over 82 games. The Stanley Cup is a playoff championship won on the ice by a team. It is possible, but not common, for a Jack Adams winner to also win the Cup in the same year.
It is extremely rare. Only one coach, Jacques Demers in 1987, has won the Jack Adams Award without leading his team to the playoffs. His Detroit Red Wings improved by 38 points but fell one point short of the postseason.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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32 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 51% | 16% |
| 25% | 48% | 23% |
| 25% | 44% | 19% |
| 20% | 49% | 28% |
| 12% | 47% | 35% |
| 12% | 43% | 31% |
| 6% | 50% | 44% |
| 20% | 34% | 14% |
| 6% | 49% | 43% |
| 5% | 50% | 45% |
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2025-26 NHL season If X wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Jared Bednar wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
If Lindy Ruff wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
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This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
If John Hynes wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
If Jon Cooper wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
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