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$32.73K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 NHL season If X wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently give Dean Evason roughly a 50/50 chance of winning the 2025-26 Jack Adams Award, which is given to the NHL's top head coach. This means traders collectively see his prospects as a coin flip. The market is relatively small, with about $33,000 wagered across dozens of related questions, indicating a niche but engaged group of bettors. Interestingly, traders on different platforms disagree significantly, with odds varying by about 30 percentage points between them.
Dean Evason is a known quantity who last coached the New Jersey Devils after a long stint with the Minnesota Wild. The market's view likely hinges on two main factors. First, the Devils have a core of elite young talent, like Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. If the team improves significantly under Evason's guidance after missing the playoffs, he would be a classic award candidate. Second, the Jack Adams often goes to a coach whose team exceeds preseason expectations. If New Jersey makes a dramatic leap in the standings, Evason gets the credit. However, the uncertainty stems from questions about the Devils' overall roster construction and whether their progress will be dramatic enough to stand out in a crowded field.
The award is voted on by the NHL Broadcasters' Association at the end of the regular season. The key period to watch is the final two months of the schedule, from roughly mid-February to mid-April 2026. If the Devils are in a tight playoff race or secure a spot earlier than projected, Evason's odds will likely rise. Conversely, if the team struggles or is eliminated from contention early, his chances will fall. The official winner will be announced during the NHL Awards ceremony in late June 2026, but the market may resolve early if his victory is confirmed by news reports before then.
Prediction markets for sports awards have a mixed record. They are generally good at identifying the top contenders, as they aggregate many opinions in real time. However, the Jack Adams can be unpredictable. It is a narrative-driven award that sometimes rewards a surprising team turnaround, which can be hard to forecast a full season in advance. The current low trading volume and disagreement between platforms also suggest lower confidence. These odds are a snapshot of current sentiment, which will shift with every win and loss during the long NHL season.
The prediction market for the 2025-26 NHL Jack Adams Award is currently pricing in a low-probability, high-volatility field. On Polymarket, the leading contract for a specific coach, Dean Evason, trades at just 47 cents, implying a 47% chance. This indicates the market views no single candidate as a favorite. The "Uncertain" outcome, representing any coach not listed, holds a 30% probability. Combined with thin total volume of $33,000 spread across 64 sub-markets, this reflects a speculative market with no clear consensus eight months before the award is decided.
Dean Evason’s position as the frontrunner in current pricing is almost entirely based on his recent hiring by the Seattle Kraken in May 2025. The Jack Adams typically rewards coaches whose teams significantly outperform preseason expectations. The market is betting that a new coach, inheriting a middling roster, can engineer a quick turnaround that captures voter attention. Historical precedent supports this: 4 of the last 10 winners were in their first full season with their team. The low probabilities for all other named coaches, like Andrew Brunette (NSH) at 9% or Jon Cooper (TBL) at 4%, show the market discounts candidates from teams with established, high expectations where dramatic improvement is harder to achieve.
The current odds are highly fragile and will be reshaped by regular season performance starting in October 2025. A team like the San Jose Sharks or Chicago Blackhawks, expected to finish near the bottom of the league, could propel their coach into contention with a surprising competitive start. Conversely, if Evason’s Kraken struggle early, his contract price will collapse. Key monitoring points are the first 20-game segment of the season and the All-Star break in February 2026, where clear narrative frontrunners typically emerge. Major injuries to star players on contender teams could also boost the odds for coaches who keep their teams winning despite adversity.
A significant 30.3% price spread exists between Kalshi and Polymarket for this event, with Kalshi consistently pricing all outcomes higher. For example, the "Uncertain" contract trades around 30% on Polymarket but near 60% on Kalshi. This spread is not arbitrage in a traditional sense because the platforms have different resolution authorities and cash-out mechanisms, making a risk-free trade impossible. The divergence likely stems from differing user bases. Polymarket's crypto-native traders may be more speculative on named coaches, while Kalshi's regulated, US-based users might assign higher weight to the field. This spread highlights the interpretive nature of this long-dated award market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Jack Adams Award is presented annually by the National Hockey League Broadcasters' Association to the NHL head coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success. The award is named for Jack Adams, the longtime coach and general manager of the Detroit Red Wings. For the 2025-26 NHL season, prediction markets allow participants to speculate on whether a specific, predetermined coach, referred to as 'X' in the market contract, will win this honor. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially named the winner at the conclusion of the season. The market includes an early close condition, meaning it will settle immediately upon the NHL's official announcement of the winner, rather than waiting for a predetermined closing date. Interest in this market stems from the award's prestige as the highest individual honor for an NHL coach and the analytical challenge of forecasting which coach will guide his team to the most surprising or impressive performance relative to preseason expectations. Bettors and analysts evaluate factors like roster changes, preseason projections, and a coach's historical ability to improve team defense and special teams. The market for the 2025-26 award will begin taking shape after the conclusion of the 2024-25 season, as offseason moves and preseason forecasts establish the baseline expectations for all 32 teams.
The Jack Adams Award was first presented at the end of the 1973-74 NHL season. The inaugural winner was Fred Shero of the Philadelphia Flyers. The award's history shows a clear voting pattern: it overwhelmingly favors coaches whose teams demonstrate the largest positive discrepancy between preseason expectations and actual results. For example, in 2023, Jim Montgomery won with the Boston Bruins after they set NHL records for wins and points following an offseason of significant roster changes. Similarly, 2022 winner Darryl Sutter led the Calgary Flames to a 111-point season after they were widely projected to be a bubble playoff team. The award has only been won by a coach of the Presidents' Trophy winner (best regular-season record) four times in the last 20 years, underscoring that sheer team quality is less important than perceived overachievement. Recent trends also show a preference for coaches who implement systemic turnarounds, particularly in team defense. From 2010 to 2024, 10 of the 15 winners coached teams that finished in the top 5 in the league in goals against per game. The voting body, the NHL Broadcasters' Association, consists of media members from each market, which can sometimes introduce regional biases or narratives into the final tally.
Beyond individual recognition, the Jack Adams Award market reflects broader assessments of team management and preseason analytics. A coach's candidacy is often a direct indicator of a team's performance against its financial and roster constraints. For general managers, having a coach win the award can validate a hiring decision and provide job security, while also increasing that coach's market value for future contracts. For fans and bettors, the award race is a narrative-driven subplot to the regular season, offering a tangible measure of which organizations are getting the most out of their investments. The award also has cultural significance within hockey, shaping the legacy of coaches. While Stanley Cup victories define careers, the Jack Adams Award signifies excellence in the 82-game marathon of the regular season and recognizes the teaching and motivational aspects of coaching that are sometimes less visible. The outcome of the award can influence offseason coaching carousels and contract extensions across the league.
The 2024 Jack Adams Award was won by Rick Tocchet of the Vancouver Canucks in June 2024. The focus for the 2025-26 award cycle will begin in earnest after the 2024-25 Stanley Cup Final concludes and the 2025 NHL Draft and free agency period reshape rosters. As of now, no clear front-runner for the 2025-26 award exists. Speculation will be based on offseason moves, with coaches taking over new teams or those leading franchises expected to struggle in preseason models garnering early attention. The official nomination process for the 2025-26 season will not begin until the final weeks of that regular season, typically in April 2026.
Members of the NHL Broadcasters' Association vote on the award. This group consists of television and radio play-by-play announcers and analysts from each of the 32 NHL markets. A representative from each member club casts a ballot.
Yes, but it is rare. It has happened only five times: Scotty Bowman (1977), Toe Blake (1962, though the award was unofficial), Pat Burns (2003), Mike Sullivan (2016), and Jon Cooper (2020). The award focuses on regular-season success, which does not always correlate with playoff outcomes.
The single most important factor is a team significantly outperforming its preseason expectations. This is often measured by a major jump in the standings or a surprise playoff berth. Systemic improvements in team defense and goaltending are also highly correlated with winning.
The award is presented during the NHL Awards ceremony, which is typically held in late June, after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup Final. The three finalists are usually announced during the second round of the playoffs.
Yes. Bruce Boudreau won the award in 2008 after taking over the Washington Capitals as an interim coach in November 2007 and leading them to a Southeast Division title. The award considers a coach's work for the entire season, regardless of their official title at the start.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
32 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 38% | 8% |
| 23% | 45% | 22% |
| 30% | 30% | 0% |
| 7% | 45% | 38% |
| 24% | 27% | 4% |
| 5% | 45% | 40% |
| 2% | 47% | 45% |
| 3% | 46% | 44% |
| 4% | 45% | 41% |
| 3% | 45% | 42% |
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2025-26 NHL season If X wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Jon Cooper wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
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This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
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This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
If Andre Tourigny wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
If Joel Quenneville wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Jack Adams Award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Jack Adams Award, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from
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