Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Total Volume

$24.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Vol

$24.14K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $24.14K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.14K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Act 39 pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Act 39 pass?	Kalshi	83%
Will Act 274 pass?	Kalshi	83%
Will Act 277 pass?	Kalshi	82%
Will Act 271 pass?	Kalshi	72%
Will Act 414 pass?	Kalshi	71%
Will Act 220 (2025) pass?	Kalshi	71%
Will Act 607 pass?	Kalshi	62%
Will Act 273 pass?	Kalshi	55%
Will Act 606 pass?	Kalshi	53%
Will Act 272 pass?	Kalshi	41%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$24.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Louisiana If X passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Louisiana

If X passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Private Water Line Funding Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ea"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Act 607 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Act 606 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Act 414 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Act 39 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Act 277 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Act 274 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Act 273 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Act 272 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Act 271 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $63
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Act 220 (2025) pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Volume$24.14K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will Act 39 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Act 39 pass?

If the Disabled Veteran Spouse Tax Exemption Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close an

KALSHI

Will Act 274 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Act 274 pass?

If the Senior Property Tax Exemption Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire

KALSHI

Will Act 277 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Act 277 pass?

If the Foreign Adversary Expropriation Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expi

KALSHI

Will Act 271 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Act 271 pass?

If the Post-Conviction Bail Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if

KALSHI

Will Act 414 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Act 414 pass?

If the Gubernatorial Term Limits Amendment passes in Louisiana, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear

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Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

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Will Act 39 pass?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Markets (10)

Will Act 39 pass?

Will Act 39 pass?

Will Act 274 pass?

Will Act 274 pass?

Will Act 277 pass?

Will Act 277 pass?

Will Act 271 pass?

Will Act 271 pass?

Will Act 414 pass?

Will Act 414 pass?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Act 39 pass?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Will Act 39 pass?

Will Act 39 pass?

Will Act 274 pass?

Will Act 274 pass?

Will Act 277 pass?

Will Act 277 pass?

Will Act 271 pass?

Will Act 271 pass?

Will Act 414 pass?

Will Act 414 pass?

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