Name: S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1 | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $6.42K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.42K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?	Poly	98%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?	Poly	98%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?	Poly	60%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?	Poly	55%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?	Poly	24%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?	Poly	22%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?	Poly	12%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?	Poly	9%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?	Poly	5%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$6.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (74 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $873
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $811
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $403
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $716
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 98.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

Volume$6.42K

Markets10

10 of 10

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POLYMARKET

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 98.2¢No 1.8¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 97.5¢No 2.4¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day

POLYMARKET

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?

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Next Market Closes

73d 1h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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38¢

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S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

Markets (10)

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?

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