Virginia's 4th congressional district (VA-04) covers the southern part of the state, including the city of Petersburg, parts of Chesterfield County, and all of several rural counties along the North Carolina border. The district has been represented by Democrat Jennifer McClellan since a special election in February 2023, following the death of longtime Representative A. Donald McEachin. The 2026 election for the term beginning in 2027 will determine who holds this seat for the next two years. VA-04 is considered a safe Democratic district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+16. The district's demographics are heavily African American, around 45% of the voting-age population, and it has a strong history of supporting Democratic candidates. The Republican Party has not won this district since 1992, and Democratic candidates typically win by double-digit margins. However, primary challenges within the Democratic Party can create competitive races, as seen in 2024 when McClellan faced a primary opponent. The 2026 election will be influenced by national political trends, the performance of the Biden administration, and local issues such as economic development in Petersburg and rural healthcare access. Political analysts expect the Democratic nominee to be heavily favored in the general election, but the primary could draw multiple candidates if McClellan decides not to seek reelection or if she faces a serious challenge from the party's progressive wing. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2021 by a bipartisan redistricting commission, which made only minor changes from the previous map. VA-04 includes parts of the Richmond metropolitan area, providing a mix of urban, suburban, and rural constituencies. The district's economy relies on government services, healthcare, education, and manufacturing, with major employers including the Fort Lee Army base (now part of the Joint Base Langley-Eustis complex), Virginia State University, and several hospital systems. Voter turnout in VA-04 has been moderate, with around 60% of registered voters participating in recent presidential elections and lower turnout in midterms. The 2026 race will test whether Democrats can maintain their stronghold in this district amid shifting national political dynamics.

Historical Context

Virginia's 4th congressional district has a long history dating back to the 1790s, but its current configuration was largely shaped by the 2021 redistricting. The district was originally created in 1789 and has been represented by figures such as John Randolph of Roanoke and James Madison. In the modern era, the district has been a Democratic stronghold since the 1990s, following the realignment of Southern politics. From 1993 to 2003, the district was represented by Democrat Bobby Scott, who later moved to VA-03 after redistricting. Republican J. Randy Forbes held the seat from 2001 to 2017, but his tenure ended when the district was redrawn to be more Democratic after the 2010 census. Forbes lost to Democrat A. Donald McEachin in 2016 by a margin of 57% to 43%. Since then, Democrats have held the seat with comfortable margins. The 2021 redistricting process was notable because it was the first conducted by a bipartisan commission rather than the state legislature. The commission's map kept VA-04 as a safe Democratic seat, with a Black voting-age population of around 45%. The district has a history of competitive primaries. In 2016, McEachin won a crowded Democratic primary with 31% of the vote. In 2024, McClellan faced a primary challenge from Joseph Preston, a former state delegate, and won with 83% of the vote. The 2026 primary could be more competitive if McClellan faces opposition from progressive groups or if she decides not to run for reelection. The district's voters have shown a preference for moderate Democrats, as seen in McEachin's and McClellan's policy positions. The district has also been affected by national trends, such as the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election where Republican Glenn Youngkin won the state but lost VA-04 by 16 points.