Name: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
End: 2026-03-23T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23) | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	57%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	39%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	2%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	1%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	0%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	0%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	0%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 23, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final dat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $451.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $53.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $39.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $62.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $44.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $29.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $39.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $50.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 23, 2026): Vol $103.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/E9QLkf" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Markets (9)

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget